Tree‐ring‐based precipitation reconstruction in southern Kazakhstan, reveals drought variability since A.D. 1770

Abstract

In this article, we developed a tree‐ring‐width chronology of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey) in southern Kazakhstan. Climate‐growth response result showed that the precipitation from the previous June to current May was the principal limited factor of radial growth. We also obtained a 246‐year reconstruction of June–May precipitation in southern Kazakhstan. The reconstruction explains 39.7% of the variance in precipitation records during the 1902–2013 calibration periods. In addition, the precipitation over the past 246 years in southern Kazakhstan has experienced six wetter periods and seven drier ones, and the extreme drought years were 1837, 1879, 1917 and 1945. From 1985 to 2004, precipitation has experienced longer and more rapid wetting, but the trend of precipitation has decreased in the past few years. The reconstructed series of precipitation is consistent with the historic precipitation/Palmer Drought Severity Index of the western Tianshan Mountains. Here, high precipitation variability occurred during 1770–1800 and 1900‐present, while 1800–1900 was relatively calm. Meanwhile, there was large power in the 2‐ to 7‐year short‐period and over the 34‐ to 35‐ and 40‐ to 43‐year long‐periods. We suggest the precipitation variability may be associated with large‐scale oscillations in the climate system. The reconstruction sheds new light on precipitation variability and the changes in a region where the climate history over the past several centuries is poorly understood.

Past changes of spring drought in the inner Tianshan Mountains, China, as recorded by tree rings

“…These high-frequency cycles imply strong teleconnections of local drought variability with tropical ocean-atmosphere systems (Li et al 2006). These cycles have frequently been found in other dendroclimatic studies of the Tianshan Mountains (Zhang et al 2016a(Zhang et al , 2017 and other arid and semiarid sites in northwestern China (Liang et al 2009 Fig. 9.…”

“…4, the extreme drought years in the inner Tianshan Mountains were 1702, 1704, 1733, 1768, 1775, 1778, 1830, 1864, 1917, 1945, 1985 and 1995, when the PDSI was lower than the mean À2r (standard deviation). In particular, 1917 was the driest year during that time-span , as shown by the precipitation/PDSI/SPEI records reconstructed for the Tianshan Mountains in previous dendroclimatology studies (Yuan et al 2000(Yuan et al , 2001(Yuan et al , 2003Li et al 2006;Wei et al 2008;Chen et al 2013;Zhang et al 2016aZhang et al , 2017. In particular, 1917 was the driest year during that time-span , as shown by the precipitation/PDSI/SPEI records reconstructed for the Tianshan Mountains in previous dendroclimatology studies (Yuan et al 2000(Yuan et al , 2001(Yuan et al , 2003Li et al 2006;Wei et al 2008;Chen et al 2013;Zhang et al 2016aZhang et al , 2017.…”

“…Wu et al (2013) detected divergence in climate-growth relationships of Schrenk spruce and also compared low-frequency and high-frequency variations. In the same region, Zhang et al (2016aZhang et al ( , 2017 reconstructed precipitation and moisture variability on a centennial time scale using tree rings. Due to their wide spatial distribution, annual resolution, calendar-exact dating and climate sensitivity, tree rings play an important role in reconstructing past environmental and climatic changes over the past millennium on regional, hemispheric and even global scales.…”

A 256‐year‐long precipitation reconstruction for northern Kyrgyzstan based on tree‐ring width

“…Although some previous studies based on the observed and reconstructed data revealed that the coherence of precipitation variation among the different areas of the Tianshan Mountains is relatively weak (Fang et al ., ; Zhang et al ., ), the newly reconstructed precipitation series for northern Kyrgyzstan (PNK) were compared with four tree‐ring‐based precipitation reconstructions: (a) pJune–May precipitation for southern Kazakhstan (PSK, 1770–2015; Zhang et al ., ); (b) pJuly–June precipitation for the Issyk Lake (PIL, 1756–2012; Zhang et al ., ); (c) pJune–May precipitation for the Ili region (PIR, 1682–1995; Yuan et al ., ); and (d) pAugust–April precipitation for the Aksu region (PAK, 1396–2005; Zhang et al ., ). The locations of these reconstructions are indicated in Figure b.…”

Intra-annual radial growth of Schrenk spruce ( Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey) and its response to climate on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains

“…Studies have shown that the tree-ring of Schrenk spruce growing in arid and semi-arid mountainous environments is climate-sensitive making this species very suitable for reconstructing past climate (Zhang et al, 2016a,b). Many studies have shown that, at the lower treeline, moisture (as measured by precipitation, Palmer Drought Severity Index, standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, relative humidity and snow cover) before the growing season and during early wood formation limits radial growth (Yuan et al, 2001(Yuan et al, , 2003Li et al, 2006;Zhang et al, 2009Zhang et al, , 2016aChen et al, 2013;Qin et al, 2012Qin et al, , 2016. However, previous studies in this area focus on individual local areas and regional climate reconstructions.…”