Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

doi:10.1007/s11600-018-0116-3

Cited by 54 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…There are several trend assessments approaches available in the literature. However, the Mann-Kendall test is the most widely used test for assessing the trends in hydro-climatic studies [18,[52][53][54][55][56]. The Mann-Kendall test [57] which is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) often used as because it has several advantages: It does consider the data distribution, and it can cope with the outliers [58][59][60][61].…”

Section: Mann-kendall Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

Ali

Kuriqi

Abubaker³

et al. 2019

Water

205

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Trend analysis of streamflow provides practical information for better management of water resources on the eve of climate change. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the presence of possible trends in the annual, seasonal, maximum, and minimum flow of Yangtze River at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in China for the period 1980 to 2015. The assessment was carried out using the Mann–Kendall trend test, and the innovative trend analysis, while Sen’s slope is used to estimate the magnitude of the changes. The results of the study revealed that there were increasing and decreasing trends at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in different months. The mean annual flow was found to decrease at a rate of −26.76 m3/s and −17.37 m3/s at both stations. The minimum flow was found to significantly increase at a rate of 30.57 m3/s and 16.37 m3/s, at a 95% level of confidence. Maximum annual flows showed an increasing trend in both regions of the Yangtze River. On the seasonal scale, the results showed that stations are more sensitive to seasonal flow variability suggesting a probable flooding aggravation. The winter season showed an increasing flow trend, while summer showed a decreasing trend. The spring flow was found to have an increasing trend by the Mann–Kendall test at both stations, but in the Zhutuo Station, a decreasing trend was found by way of the innovative trend analysis method. However, the autumn flow indicated a decreasing trend over the region by the Mann–Kendall (MK) test at both stations while it had an increasing trend in Cuntan by the innovative trend analysis method. The result showed nonstationary increasing and decreasing flow trends over the region. Innovative trend analysis method has the advantage of detecting the sub-trends in the flow time series because of its ability to present the results in graphical format. The results of the study indicate that decreasing trends may create water scarcity if proper adaptation measures are not taken.

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Section: Mann-kendall Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

Ali

Kuriqi

Abubaker³

et al. 2019

Water

205

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“…About one-third of gauged stations falls in this area, especially in Spain, southern France and Italy. Gauged stations that enclose catchments with an area more than 100,000 km 2 were excluded by the analysis because human disturbance is unavoidable at this scale (Piniewski et al 2018). Nevertheless, about 90% of stations belongs to catchments with size less than 1,000 km2 as 105 shown in Fig.…”

Section: River Flow Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such test has already shown its robustness in trend detection, in particular in case of non-normally distributed data such as the meteorological and hydrological series (e.g., Yue and Wang 2002;Yue et al 2003;Yue and Pilon 2004;Piniewski et al 2018).…”

Section: Trend Detectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the hydrological scientific community undertook a great effort, almost no research robustly demonstrates an ubiquitous and uniform trend in European annual streamflow volumes, especially in Mediterranean areas where drought periods have been increased during the last fifty years (Caloiero et al 2018). Few regional studies, mainly located in northern Europe, detected potential trends in river flow, relying mainly on data from the beginning of the second middle of the twenty-first century (Piniewski et al 2018, Renard et al 2008, Birsan et al 2005, KLIWA 2003, Schmocker-Fackel and Naef 2010, Demeterova and Skoda 2005, 2009, Fiale 2008, Fiala et al 2010. These studies showed a clear seasonal change in streamflow without finding a solid correlation with the geographic position of the catchments (Bard et al 2015, Bormann et al 2017).…”

Section: Introduction 25mentioning

confidence: 99%

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65-year changes of annual streamflow volumes across Europe with a focus on the Mediterranean basin

Masseroni

Camici

Cislaghi

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Determining the spatio-temporal variability of annual streamflow volume plays a relevant role in hydrology for improving and implementing sustainable and resilient policies and practices of water resource management. This study investigates annual streamflow volume trends in a newly-assembled, consolidated and validated dataset of daily mean river flow records from more than 3,000 stations, which cover near-natural basins in more than 40 countries across Europe. Although the dataset contains streamflow time-series from 1850 to 2015 in some stations, the statistical analyses were carried out by including observations from 1950 to 2015 in order to have a consistent and reliable dataset over the continent. Trends were detected calculating the slope of Theil-Sen's line over the annual anomalies of streamflow volume. The results show annual streamflow volume trends emerged at European scale, with a marked negative tendency in Mediterranean regions (about −1 × 103 m3/(km2 year)) and a generally positive trend in northern ones (about 0.5 × 103 m3/(km2 year)). The annual streamflow volume trend patterns appear in agreement with the continental-scale climate change observations in response to climate change drivers. In the Mediterranean area, the declining of annual streamflow volumes started in 1965 and since early 80' volumes are consistently lower than the average. The spatio-temporal annual streamflow volume patterns observed in this work can help to contextualize short-term trends and regional studies already available in the scientific literature as well as to provide a valid benchmark for further accurate quantitative analysis on annual streamflow volumes.

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“…River flow extreme quantiles were found to be associated with large-scale climatic variables from the regions of the North Atlantic Ocean, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Asia, and, to a lesser extent, the Pacific Ocean. Piniewski et al [22] analyzed projections of low and high flow changes in the Vistula and the Odra basins (VOB), using SWAT model forced with the bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX data to review and analyze projections of low and high river flows in Central and Eastern Europe, based on results of large-scale models reported in literature. Wrzesiński and Sobkowiak [23] detected changes in the flow regime characteristics of rivers in Poland, including the Vistula, and determined their exact dates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transformation of the Flow Regime of a Large Allochthonous River in Central Europe—An Example of the Vistula River in Poland

Wrzesiński

Sobkowiak

2020

Water

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Identification of river flow regime and its possible changes caused by natural factors or human activity is one of major issues in modern hydrology. In such studies different approaches and different indicators can be used. The aim of this study is to determine changes in flow regime of the largest river in Poland—the Vistula, using new, more objectified coefficients and indices, based on data recorded in 22 gauges on the Vistula mainstream and 38 gauges on its tributaries in the multi-year period 1971–2010. The paper consists of three main parts: in the first part, in order to recognize changes in the flow regime characteristics along the Vistula, data from gauges located on the river mainstream were analyzed with the help of the theory of entropy. In the second part gauging stations on the Vistula mainstream and its tributaries were grouped; values of the newly introduced pentadic Pardé’s coefficient of flow (discharge) (PPC) were taken as the grouping criterion. In the third part of the study a novel method of determining river regime characteristics was applied: through the recognition of the temporal structure of hydrological phenomena and their changes in the annual cycle sequences of hydrological periods (characteristic phases of the hydrological cycle) on the Vistula River mainstream and its tributaries were identified and their occurrence in the yearly cycle was discussed. Based on the detected changes of the 73-pentad Pardé’s coefficients of flow four main types of rivers were distinguished. Transformation of the flow regime was reflected in the identified different sequences of hydrological periods in the average annual cycle. It was found that while transformation of the Vistula River regime occurred along its whole course, the most frequent changes were detected in its upper, mountainous reaches, under the influence of the flow characteristics of its tributaries. This allowed the Vistula to be considered the allochthonous river. These findings are interesting not only from a theoretical point of view, but they also can be valuable to stakeholders in the field of the Vistula River basin water management and hydrological forecasting, including flood protection, which has recently become a matter of growing concern due to the observed effects of climate change and human impact.

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Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

Cited by 54 publications

References 48 publications

Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

65-year changes of annual streamflow volumes across Europe with a focus on the Mediterranean basin

Transformation of the Flow Regime of a Large Allochthonous River in Central Europe—An Example of the Vistula River in Poland

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