Trends and frontiers for the science and management of the oceans

Mumby, Peter J.

doi:10.1016/j.cub.2017.04.049

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Any factors that either reduce recovery or enhance mortality would likely result in less optimistic reef outcomes than we present here (Figure S6). On the other hand, because our models assume no adaptation our results could also be pessimistic, but by how much is currently uncertain and a major research question (Mumby, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures

Wolff

Mumby

Devlin

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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101

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Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run-off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017-2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near-term, relative to current state, followed by climate-driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business-as-usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate-driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR-wide reef performance will decline 27%-74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures

Wolff

Mumby

Devlin

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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101

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“…GPS capable) satellite tags are needed with 24 h transmissions to allow detailed insight into turtles' activity including the proportion of time turtles are actively swimming or orienting versus at rest, and whether there are diel patterns of behaviour. Other small marine swimmers are known to diverge from the direction of local currents or water flow [ 61 ]; incorporating compass headings with swim speeds would help refine our understanding of the degree to which (and when) young, oceanic turtles are moving with, or independently of, local currents [ 62 ]. As more laboratory-reared and wild-caught oceanic stage sea turtles are tracked from different rookeries in different ocean basins, we will probably find that long-held hypotheses regarding the ‘lost years’ dispersal and behaviour (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

First satellite tracks of South Atlantic sea turtle ‘lost years’: seasonal variation in trans-equatorial movement

Mansfield

Mendilaharsu²,

Putman

et al. 2017

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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In the South Atlantic Ocean, few data exist regarding the dispersal of young oceanic sea turtles. We characterized the movements of laboratory-reared yearling loggerhead turtles from Brazilian rookeries using novel telemetry techniques, testing for differences in dispersal during different periods of the sea turtle hatching season that correspond to seasonal changes in ocean currents. Oceanographic drifters deployed alongside satellite-tagged turtles allowed us to explore the mechanisms of dispersal (passive drift or active swimming). Early in the hatching season turtles transited south with strong southward currents. Late in the hatching season, when currents flowed in the opposite direction, turtles uniformly moved northwards across the Equator. However, the movement of individuals differed from what was predicted by surface currents alone. Swimming velocity inferred from track data and an ocean circulation model strongly suggest that turtles' swimming plays a role in maintaining their position within frontal zones seaward of the continental shelf. The long nesting season of adults and behaviour of post-hatchlings exposes young turtles to seasonally varying ocean conditions that lead some individuals further into the South Atlantic and others into the Northern Hemisphere. Such migratory route diversity may ultimately buffer the population against environmental changes or anthropologic threats, fostering population resiliency.

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“…Furthermore, it may not be possible to control weeds at a regional level due to the global drivers of change that promote their proliferation (ie global warming). However, even as environments change, the ecosystem services they provide do not disappear but continue to exist in a modified form (Mumby ). Indeed, society is beginning to recognize some of the benefits of terrestrial weeds to humans (eg as potential sources of food, fuel, and medicine) and the environment (Ziska and Dukes ).…”

Section: Can We Embrace a Weedy Future?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Weedy futures: can we benefit from the species that thrive in the marine Anthropocene?

Doubleday

Connell

2018

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

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Humans are changing the marine environment at an accelerating rate, causing species decline and loss of natural resources. But counter to these declining trends, some species appear to be thriving in response to environmental change. Focusing on three divergent taxa – algae, jellyfish, and cephalopods – we discuss the concept of adaptable “weedy species” and how they may be the ultimate beneficiaries of rapidly changing marine environments. We then show how such species could benefit society, not only by absorbing human impacts and providing sustainable forms of food, but also by reducing pressure on species in decline. As the world's demand for natural resources continues to grow in a global environment under increasing strain, we should take a closer look at weedy species to see what they can provide.

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Trends and frontiers for the science and management of the oceans

Cited by 12 publications

References 37 publications

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures

First satellite tracks of South Atlantic sea turtle ‘lost years’: seasonal variation in trans-equatorial movement

Weedy futures: can we benefit from the species that thrive in the marine Anthropocene?

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