Tropical cyclone movement features in the western North Pacific region based on multi‐dimensional statistical analyses

Abstract

In order to protect and mitigate the disaster caused by tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific (WNP) region, further understandings of the characteristics of historical TCs are important. In this study, multi-dimensional statistical analyses are carried out to reveal the TC movement features in the WNP. Two representative TC datasets provided by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are used to investigate the historical TC properties in the WNP covering a time duration from 1951 to 2018. TC movement features generally show the great consistency with respect to these two datasets. Based on the regional (zero-dimensional analysis) and zonally averaged (one-dimensional analysis) results, it is found that TCs move northwest with a small velocity at low latitudes, whereas they tend to drift northeast with a large velocity at high latitudes. The recurvature occurs near 25 N where the direction of zonal drift velocity reverses. Applying the bivariate normal distribution method (quasi-two-dimensional analysis), the randomness of the zonal component is found to be generally greater than that of the meridional component. Accordingly, relevant attentions, rather than universal ones, should be paid to forecast the TC movement in different regions. Regarding the complete two-dimensional analysis, it is found that compared with other areas, TCs have a smaller magnitude of drift velocity but stronger intensity with higher passage frequencies in the area enclosed by 10-25 N and 110-140 E, where significant TC-induced disasters are prone to occur, resulting in a serious threat to the safety of human beings and local societies.