Two-round elections, one-round determinants? Evidence from the French municipal elections

Abstract

Using a new database of French municipalities that covers 821 towns and 2 elections (2001 and 2008), we examine how the budget structure, degree of electoral competition and the economic context affect the share of votes for the incumbent. We assess the specificities created by the two-round process under French electoral rule (a dual ballot under plurality rule). We show that in the first round of the electoral process, spending on equipment can influence the voter, and that electoral competition has a strong impact on the incumbent's score. In the second round, the incumbent's vote is affected more by national considerations and local budget variables have no effect. We show that the dynamics between the first and the second rounds are intense. The results suggest that the determinants of each round in a two-round electoral process are different.JEL classification: D72 -H72 -H76

Who are the ‘ghost’ MPs? Evidence from the French parliament

“…The effect of Age follows an inverse-U relationship, and mayors obtain better scores. This is consistent with Cassette et al (2013), who find that mayors running for reelection are more easily reelected if they simultaneously hold a mandate in the parliament. But at the second round, none of these (personal) variables is significant, and only political variables seem to matter: Lef t and Center, M aj and Exp.…”

“…4 come may be round-specific (for instance Cassette et al, 2013). I thus check whether voters consider the personal record of their incumbent deputy in the same way at the first and at the second round.…”

Are elections debt brakes? Evidence from French municipalities

“…The number of candidates will thus be considered in what follows, as it will impact the incumbent's ex ante chance of being reelected (Cassette et al, 2012).…”

“…Akhmedov and Zhuravskaya (2004) (2006) or Dubois and Paty (2010) but none of these have looked at the impact of debt and pre-electoral debt manipulation on the incumbent's electoral success, and they generally have a more restricted geographical sample than the one we use here. Cassette et al (2012) use a similar sample but analyze the political dynamics between the two-rounds of the electoral process, but they do not focus on the debt dynamics and their influence on electoral outcomes.…”

‘In consideration of the children’, really? Adoption of the school-rhythm reform by French municipalities

“…As such, financing extra-curricular activities falls on the operating expenditures budget item line. On this issue and its influence on municipal elections, see Cassette et al (2013). 8 In both cases, mayors rely on the voters' myopia, a feature supported by the large existing evidence on retrospective voting (see, e.g., Dubois, 2007).…”