Uncertainty Quantification in Mineral Resource Estimation

Abstract

Mineral resources are estimated to establish potential orebody with acceptable quality (grade) and quantity (tonnage) to validate investment. Estimating mineral resources is associated with uncertainty from sampling, geological heterogeneity, shortage of knowledge and application of mathematical models at sampled and unsampled locations. The uncertainty causes overestimation or underestimation of mineral deposit quality and/or quantity, affecting the anticipated value of a mining project. Therefore, uncertainty is assessed to avoid any likely risks, establish areas more prone to uncertainty and allocate resources to scale down potential consequences. Kriging, probabilistic, geostatistical simulation and machine learning methods are used to estimate mineral resources and assess uncertainty, and their applicability depends on deposit characteristics, amount of data available and expertise of technical personnel. These methods are scattered in the literature making them challenging to access when needed for uncertainty quantification. Therefore, this review aims to compile information about uncertainties in mineral resource estimation scatted in the literature and develop a knowledge base of methodologies for uncertainty quantification. In addition, mineral resource estimation comprises different interdependent steps, in and through which uncertainty accumulates and propagates toward the final estimate. Hence, this review demonstrates stepwise uncertainty propagation and assessment through various phases of the estimation process. This can broaden knowledge about mineral resource estimation and uncertainty assessment in each step and increase the accuracy of mineral resource estimates and mining project viability.