Understanding Bayes’ Theorem and Its Application in Judicial Decision Making

Abstract

The Bayes’ theorem is a mathematical formula to gauge and describe the probability of an event by employing prior knowledge and evidence relevant to the event. The objective of the present study was to understand the Bayesian theorem and its application in judicial trials by deploying doctrinal research methodology. After consulting authoritative writings of prominent researchers and judicial decisions, study found that the Bayesian Probability in legal context used in odds version, likelihood ratio and in the form of Bayesian networks. The study also found that the application of the theorem in judicial proceedings was controversial since various researchers condemned, and numerous analysts advocated its application in real time court cases. Moreover, the study found that the theorem has been and advocated to be used to measure the probative force of statistical and non-statistical evidence, and to infer the causes of any event by observing its effects. It is expected that the present study will enable the legal fraternity to understand the working mechanism and various uses of Bayes’ theorem in legal context. Keywords: Application of Bayesian theorem, Bayesian Probability, Judicial decisions, Uses of Bayesian theory in judicial trials.