Understanding Risk and Uncertainty Management Practice in Complex Projects

Hasani, Mundhir Al; Regan, M.J.

doi:10.19044/elp.v4no4a3

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Risk and uncertainty are closely related in a project, as uncertainty can lead to risks [17,18]. Epistemic uncertainty arises from a lack of knowledge about a phenomenon and highlights the limitations of our understanding.…”

Section: Literature Review 21 Uncertainty In Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing Risk Management in Road Infrastructure Facing Flash Floods through Epistemological Approaches

Ariza Flores,

de Sousa,

Oda

2024

Buildings

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This study examines the integration of epistemological principles into road infrastructure risk management, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in the face of inherent climate uncertainties, particularly flash floods. A systematic review of peer-reviewed articles, industry reports, and case studies from the past two decades was conducted, focusing on the application of epistemological approaches within the infrastructure sector. The research employs a mixed methods approach. Quantitatively, the risk of pavement failure is measured by analyzing the relationship between pavement serviceability rates and Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) data in areas frequently affected by flash floods. For example, rainfall intensities during flood events on the BR-324 highway in Brazil were significantly higher than monthly averages, with maximum values reaching 235.73 mm for a 5 min duration over a 50-year return period. These intensities showed an increase of approximately 15% over 5 to 10 years and 8% over 50 to 75 years. Qualitatively, traditional risk management methods are combined with epistemological concepts. This integrated approach fosters reflective practice, encourages the use of both quantitative and qualitative data, promotes a dynamic management environment, and supports sustainable development goals by aligning risk management with environmental and social sustainability. This study finds that incorporating epistemological insights can lead to more fluid and continuously improving risk management practices in construction, design, and maintenance. It concludes with a call for future research to explore the integration of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence to further refine these approaches and more effectively manage complexity and uncertainty.

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Section: Literature Review 21 Uncertainty In Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing Risk Management in Road Infrastructure Facing Flash Floods through Epistemological Approaches

Ariza Flores,

de Sousa,

Oda

2024

Buildings

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“…The information-entropy model of the basis for making managerial decisions under conditions of uncertainty is presented in [16], the analysis of delay in constructing the hierarchy of Bayesian networks in [17]. The use of information technology to identify uncertainty parameters in statistical estimates is presented in [18,19]. Mathematical support for excluding the human factor's influence on navigation equipment systems under uncertainty and risk is presented in [20][21][22].…”

Section: Analysis Of Recent Research and Publicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling of Inteligent Software for the Diagnosis and Monitoring of Ship Power Plant Components Using Markov Chains

Sharko,

Yanenko

2023

SBT

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The reliability and serviceability of metal structures depends on the quality of control over the technical condition and mechanical properties of materials in accordance with international standards. However, in the course of operation, deviations from the normative values of material properties occur due to the uncertain nature and magnitude of the loads, which necessitates periodic shutdowns of the equipment for the purpose of diagnostics. Uninterrupted operation of elements of power equipment of marine vessels depends on the quality of control of their technical condition by physical diagnostic methods. The most effective method of reducing operating costs and increasing the reliability of equipment is maintenance based on interactive monitoring of its condition, detection of malfunctions and forecasting of energy equipment parameters. This makes the tasks of control, diagnosis and forecasting of energy equipment parameters particularly relevant. At the same time, the use of various diagnostic methods does not allow taking into account all the features of real operating conditions. This problem is especially acute in conditions of various extreme situations and peak loads, which cannot be taken into account. Probabilistic methods, in particular Markov chains, are a promising area of research. The system of intelligent diagnostics and monitoring of ship power plant turbochargers using Markov chains is presented. The novelty of the developed methodology lies in replacing discrete time intervals of the diagnostic process with a sequence of states of technical objects. In this formulation, Markov chains represent a synthetic property that accumulates diverse factors. Randomization of stochastic diagnostic and monitoring processes of ship power plant components enables an increase in reliability of equipment under severe operating conditions. The results of calculations of digitalization of experimental data, calculations of transition matrices and construction of an orgraph allowing to study the kinetics of damage accumulation in real time are presented.

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“…It is widely recognised in the literature that uncertainty is inherent to projects, and a key issue when it comes to the methods of a project [5]. Although uncertainty has been studied in different disciplines related to organization theory, most of them are independent of PM [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, in this context, there is not a universally accepted approach or definition of uncertainty. For instance, some authors agree that ambiguity and volatility are two key factors for uncertainty, which can be considered as the entire complexity of the project [5,7]. Other authors declare that the level of uncertainty a team faces is dependent on the organization's stock of experience and problem-solving capacity [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Multiple Projects in Uncertain Contexts: A Case Study on the Application of a New Approach Based on the Critical Chain Method

Apaolaza

Lizarralde

2020

Sustainability

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Uncertainty and change are two features of modern project management. They strongly influence the project management needs to operate in such contexts. This is the case when a complete and accurate definition of the scope of a project is not available. Those situations require a project management approach capable of dealing with the special conditions that characterise said contexts. This study focuses on the application of the progressive elaboration approach and the Critical Chain method. We analysed the implementation process of the new procedure in a company that produces capital goods for the automotive industry. The work’s main focus is on the effect of this change from the multi-project perspective. We found that the change had a larger impact than was expected by the company. Firstly, we found that the new approach provided an opportunity to improve the performance of the company. Besides, the new approach uncovered significant problems that previously were ignored, as well as problems and obstacles to the change. Based on the results and findings of this work, we conclude that shifting to this kind of approach requires a global managerial perspective, and strong support from the management.

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Understanding Risk and Uncertainty Management Practice in Complex Projects

Cited by 4 publications

References 48 publications

Enhancing Risk Management in Road Infrastructure Facing Flash Floods through Epistemological Approaches

Enhancing Risk Management in Road Infrastructure Facing Flash Floods through Epistemological Approaches

Modeling of Inteligent Software for the Diagnosis and Monitoring of Ship Power Plant Components Using Markov Chains

Managing Multiple Projects in Uncertain Contexts: A Case Study on the Application of a New Approach Based on the Critical Chain Method

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