Understanding the drivers of mortality in African savannah elephants

Schlossberg, Scott; Gobush, Kathleen S.; Chase, Michael J.; Elkan, Paul W.; Grossmann, Falk; Kohi, Edward M.

doi:10.1002/eap.2131

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…In another similar analysis, Schlossberg et al . [36] did not find correlations between elephant mortality and human national human development or governance, although they acknowledge lower statistical power (they focused on savannah elephants in 17 countries while we focus on both savannah and forest elephants across 30 countries). We considered using Schlossberg et al 's [36] measure of poverty (the Night Lights Poverty Index), but most MIKE sites are in rural areas so there is little contrast in light intensity among sites.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Drivers and facilitators of the illegal killing of elephants across 64 African sites

et al. 2023

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Ivory poaching continues to threaten African elephants. We (1) used criminology theory and literature evidence to generate hypotheses about factors that may drive, facilitate or motivate poaching, (2) identified datasets representing these factors, and (3) tested those factors with strong hypotheses and sufficient data quality for empirical associations with poaching. We advance on previous analyses of correlates of elephant poaching by using additional poaching data and leveraging new datasets for previously untested explanatory variables. Using data on 10 286 illegally killed elephants detected at 64 sites in 30 African countries (2002–2020), we found strong evidence to support the hypotheses that the illegal killing of elephants is associated with poor national governance, low law enforcement capacity, low household wealth and health, and global elephant ivory prices. Forest elephant populations suffered higher rates of illegal killing than savannah elephants. We found only weak evidence that armed conflicts may increase the illegal killing of elephants, and no evidence for effects of site accessibility, vegetation density, elephant population density, precipitation or site area. Results suggest that addressing wider systemic challenges of human development, corruption and consumer demand would help reduce poaching, corroborating broader work highlighting these more ultimate drivers of the global illegal wildlife trade.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Drivers and facilitators of the illegal killing of elephants across 64 African sites

et al. 2023

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“…Our understanding of natural drivers, such as how rainfall and vegetation variability 13 can drive megafauna population dynamics 13 , seasonal migrations 15,23 , and how megafauna contribute to maintaining savanna heterogeneity 24,27 , is largely based on theoretical works 41 and studies from a few, well studied PAs (e.g., Kruger National Park, South Africa, and the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania 40 ). Likewise, research highlighting the significance of herbivore-livestock interactions 42,43 , fencing proliferation 44 , and land degradation 7 is strongly biased towards the Mara-Serengeti Ecosystem 45 , while cross-continental research has primarily focused on savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) 46,47 . In addition to local scale studies, some global studies have also indicated improved socio-economic conditions within a country may drive positive megafauna population trends within PAs 48,49 .…”

Section: Natural Vs Human Driversmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…human-wildlife conflict potential) that may influence megafauna biomass across our study area, but are not directly observable at a macroecological scale 46,71,103 (Fig. 1, Table S1).…”

Section: Selecting Predictor Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using this data, we calculated mean HDI score per survey area using a 20 km buffer around each survey area. This allowed us to calculate a HDI score that better reflects the socio-economic conditions of the people directly surrounding PAs-considering the HDI scores of neighbouring countries where PAs are situated near international borders 46 . In addition, investigated using variables for national governance from the World Bank-using the mean of governance scores from 2010-2015 107 .…”

Section: Selecting Predictor Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Socio-economic factors strongly determine megafauna biomass in African savanna protected areas

Thornley

Buitenwerf

Vogel³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The persistence of African megafauna (herbivores >10 kg) in savannas is at risk from anthropogenic pressures including land–use change, bush–meat hunting and poaching. The mitigation of these risks, while still ensuring socio-economic improvement, is a crucial challenge to megafauna conservation and sustainable development across Africa. Protected areas are designed to diminish these risks, yet evidence from individual protected areas and countries suggests that megafauna populations within protected areas are increasingly affected by negative human influence. However, on the continental scale, it remains unclear to what degree megafauna in African savanna protected areas are affected by human influences relative to natural drivers. We quantified the relative influence of human and natural drivers on biomass from 47 megafauna species, estimated from aerial surveys across 296 survey areas in 12 African countries, spanning 550,452 km2 of protected savanna. The Human Development Index (HDI) emerged as the strongest predictor of megafauna biomass within protected areas across Africa, exceeding the importance of the main natural drivers (natural savanna habitat, water availability) and other human–related drivers (roads, environmental governance, and livestock density). Importantly, our findings show that megafauna biomass is suppressed to <= 3600 kg km-2 at low HDI (0.50), compared to 6800 kg km-2 at higher HDI (> 0.50). This indicates that improving socioeconomic conditions surrounding savanna protected areas could substantially enhance megafauna conservation across the continent, while addressing numerous sustainable development goals for local communities.

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“…Africa hosted about 1 million elephants in the 1970s but their number had reduced to about 400,000 -630,000 individuals by 2010 (Douglas-Hamilton, 1987;Chase et al, 2016). The dramatic population decline is attributed primarily to poaching, habitat degradation, fragmentation and loss caused by human and livestock population growth and associated land use developments (Ihwagi et al, 2015;Chase et al, 2016;Thouless et al, 2016;Schlossberg et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya

Mukeka¹,

Ogutu²,

Kanga³

et al. 2022

Front. Conserv. Sci.

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High mortality poses a serious threat to sustainable conservation of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana). Using detected carcass data collected by the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) during 1992-2017, we analyze temporal and spatial variation in elephant mortality in Kenya. We investigate the major mortality causes and means used to kill elephants, carcass category, tusk recovery status, variation in mortality with elephant age and sex classes, differences between inside and outside protected areas (PAs), the Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE) and the overall mortality rate (MR — the number of dead/number of live elephants in a given year). In total 9,182 elephant deaths were recorded during the 26 years. Elephant mortality increased over time and was attributed primarily to natural (33.1%) and human-related causes, particularly ivory poaching (31.5%) and human-elephant conflicts (19.9%). Elephant mortality varied across Kenya’s 47 counties in correspondence with variation in elephant population size and was the highest in the leading elephant range counties of Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Samburu and Meru. Mortality was higher for males and adults and outside the protected areas. Most elephant carcasses had tusks (75.1%) but a few did not (12.5%). Yearly PIKE values peaked in 2012, the year with the highest poaching levels in Kenya during 1992-2017. MR increased throughout 1992-2017. Temporal variation in elephant mortality probability was significantly influenced by human and livestock population densities, average annual maximum temperature and total annual rainfall and the strength of these influences varied across the seven leading elephant range counties of Kenya. Natural processes are increasingly contributing to elephant mortality likely due to climate change and the associated food and water stress, exacerbated by contracting range. Enhancing anti-poaching and strategies for mitigating climate change impacts and human-elephant conflict and reducing range contraction while sustaining habitat connectivity can help reduce mortality and promote elephant conservation. Strengthening enforcement of international wildlife laws can further reduce illegal trade in tusks and killing of elephants.

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Understanding the drivers of mortality in African savannah elephants

Cited by 9 publications

References 65 publications

Drivers and facilitators of the illegal killing of elephants across 64 African sites

Drivers and facilitators of the illegal killing of elephants across 64 African sites

Socio-economic factors strongly determine megafauna biomass in African savanna protected areas

Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya

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