Understanding trimester-specific miscarriage risk in Indian women: insights from the calendar data of National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-21

Abstract

Background The primary public health issue, especially in low- and middle-income countries, is early pregnancy loss driven by miscarriage. Understanding early pregnancy losses and the characteristics of mothers who have miscarriages is essential to creating effective reproductive health strategies. Thus, this study’s primary goal is to delve into the factors which impact miscarriages that take place prior to and following the first 12 weeks of gestation. Methods The bivariate analysis was employed to determine the frequency of miscarriages. The factors associated with miscarriages in the first (≤12 weeks) and second & above (> 12 weeks) trimesters of pregnancy were then examined using a generalised linear regression model, with 95% confidence intervals. Finally, we use ArcGIS to illustrate the prevalence of miscarriage in the districts of India. Results Our result shows that miscarriages occur often in India (4.9%), with 23% of cases occurring in the first trimester (≤12 weeks). In our bivariate analysis, we identified several factors associated with a higher prevalence of miscarriages in India. It was found that mothers aged thirty years or older, residing in urban areas, with less than ten years of education, belonging to the richest wealth quantile, expressing a desire for more children, having no demand for contraception, and possessing no parity experienced a higher prevalence of miscarriage in total pregnancies in India. On the other hand, the generalised linear model’s findings show that mothers who are thirty years of age or older, practise other religions, live in urban areas, are members of other castes, want more children, marry before the age of eighteen, and meet their contraceptive needs are more likely to have miscarriages in total pregnancy. However, there is a larger likelihood of miscarriage in the first trimester (≤12 weeks) for mothers who follow other religions, live in urban areas, are from Other Backward Class (OBC), get married before the age of eighteen, and fall into the middle and upper wealth quantiles. A mother is more likely to miscarriage in the second & above (> 12 weeks) trimesters if she is older than thirty, from other castes, wants more children, has moderate media exposure, marries before turning eighteen, meets her contraceptive needs, and does not feel the need for contraception. After accounting for socioeconomic characteristics, all results were statistically significant. Conclusions Given the substantial number of miscarriages in India, police need to improve planning and guidance in order to lower pregnancy loss due to miscarriage. Miscarriage rates may be significantly decreased by enhancing the availability and quality of reproductive health care infrastructure, particularly in rural areas.