Unveiling Istanbul’s City Dynamics: Spatiotemporal Hotspot Analysis of Vegetation, Settlement, and Surface Urban Heat Islands

Abstract

Investigation of cities’ spatiotemporal dynamics, including vegetation and urban areas, is of utmost importance for understanding ecological balance, urban planning, and sustainable development. This study investigated the dynamic interactions between vegetation, settlement patterns, and surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) in Istanbul using spatiotemporal hotspot analysis. Utilizing Landsat satellite imagery, we applied the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to analyze Land Surface Temperature (LST), Urban Index (UI), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) across the city. Using satellite images and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, this research investigated how vegetation and urbanization impact SUHIs. Based on the main results, mean NDVI, UI, and LST values for 2009 and 2017 were analyzed, revealing significant vegetation loss in 37 of Istanbul’s 39 districts, with substantial urbanization, especially in the north, due to new infrastructure development. On the other hand, hotspot analysis was conducted on normalized NDVI, UI, and LST images by analyzing 977 neighborhoods. Results showed a significant transformation of green areas to non-significant classes in NDVI, high urbanization in UI, and the formation of new hot areas in LST. SUHIs were found to cluster in areas with increasing residential and industrial activities, highlighting the role of urban development on SUHI formation. This research can be applied to any region since it offers crucial perspectives for decision-makers and urban planners aiming to mitigate SUHI effects through targeted greening strategies and sustainable urban development. By integrating environmental metrics into urban planning, this study underscores the need for comprehensive and sustainable approaches to enhance urban resilience, reduce environmental impact, and improve livability in Istanbul.