Upstream Evaporation is the Key to Extreme Summertime Heat Stress in North China

Abstract

Humidity plays a critical role in amplifying temperature impact, leading to reduced heat dissipation efficiency and severe heat stress in humans. In the specific context of North China, this study explored different sensitivities of extreme heat stress (measured by wet-bulb temperature, TW) to humidity and temperature, and analyzed the influence of upstream variables on extreme heat stress. It is found that in the past four decades, extreme heat stress in North China increased rapidly at a maximum rate of over 0.4 ℃/decade, accompanied by the influence of humidity on extreme heat stress surpasses that of temperature. Even slight fluctuations in humidity can result in substantial variations in heat stress levels, unlike equivalent changes in temperature. This study is the first to find that for extreme heat stress, changes in temperature can only increase TW by up to 0.5 ℃, while increase in humidity can increase TW by 3 ℃. Notably, both humidity and temperature begin to rise approximately three days prior to extreme days, coinciding with intensified humidity transport and temperature advection from the upstream region. This study is also the first to find that intensified humidity transport is primarily driven by remarkably high evaporation originating from the western extension of the Northwest Pacific Subtropical High, while the strengthened temperature advection stems from a north–south temperature gradient during extreme days. This mechanism, wherein upstream variables impact downstream conditions, holds significant value for accurate prediction and timely response strategies.