Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach—A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China

Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Chuanrong; He, Qingsong; Liu, Yanfang

doi:10.3390/ijerph14060643

Cited by 31 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…For example, incorporating GWLR-derived spatially varying relationships within cellular automata (CA) models to simulate rapid urban growth can fully address local relations in the land-change processes and improve the overall modeling accuracy [63]. Other applications include the introduction of GWR concepts in the transformation rules of CA to project future developments in urban ecological security, and modifying the traditional CLUE-S model with GW approaches to simulate the regional land-use change [64,65]. The local statistical relationships identified by the GW models, as well as future projections, can contribute to context-related land management and proactive policy-making [66].…”

Section: Implications For Land-change Modeling and Land Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Driving Factors of Land Change in China’s Loess Plateau: Quantification Using Geographically Weighted Regression and Management Implications

Ren

Lü

et al. 2020

Remote Sensing

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Land change is a key topic in research on global environmental change, and the restoration of degraded land is the core component of the global Land Degradation Neutrality target under the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this study, remote-sensing-derived land-use data were used to characterize the land-change processes in China’s Loess Plateau, which is experiencing large-scale ecological restoration. Geographically Weighted Regression was applied to capture the spatiotemporal variations in land change and driving-force relationships. First, we explored land-use change in the Loess Plateau for the period 1990–2015. Grassland, cropland and forestland were dominant land cover in the region, with a total percentage area of 88%. The region experienced dramatic land-use transitions during the study period: degraded grassland and wetland, expansion of cropland and built-up land and weak restoration of forestland during 1990–2000; and increases in grassland, built-up land, forestland and wetland, concurrent with shrinking cropland during 2000–2015. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis revealed altitude to be the common dominant factor associated with the four major land-use types (forestland, grassland, cropland and built-up land). Altitude and slope were found to be positively associated with forestland, while being negatively associated with cropland in the high, steep central region. For both forestland and grassland, temperature and precipitation behaved in a similar manner, with a positive hotspot in the northwest. Altitude, slope and distance to road were all negatively associated with built-up land across the region. The GWR captured the spatial non-stationarity on different socioeconomic driving forces. Spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation of the impact of socioeconomic drivers indicate that the ecological restoration projects positively affected the region’s greening trend with hotspots in the center and west, and also improved farmer well-being. Notably, urban population showed undesired effects, expressed in accelerating grassland degradation in central and western regions for 1990–2000, hindering forestland and grassland restoration in the south during 2000–2015, and highlighting the long-term sustainability of the vegetation restoration progress. Such local results have the potential to provide a methodological contribution (e.g., nesting local-level approaches, i.e., GWR, within land system research) and spatially explicit evidence for context-related and proactive land management (e.g., balancing urbanization and ecological restoration processes and advancing agricultural development and rural welfare improvement).

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Section: Implications For Land-change Modeling and Land Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Driving Factors of Land Change in China’s Loess Plateau: Quantification Using Geographically Weighted Regression and Management Implications

Ren

Lü

et al. 2020

Remote Sensing

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“…Ecological security becomes an important research domain internationally, especially urban ecological security. As highly populated eco-systems, cities always have more fragile ecological environments (Gao et al 2017). Ecological security is regarded as one of the most important national survival strategies (Zhao et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A research on urban eco-security evaluation and analysis: complex system’s brittle structure model

Liu

Zhong-hai

2020

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Urban ecosystem has become a critical part of ecological security and draws much attention worldwide. It is both a result of natural ecological system development, and also an inevitable outcome of human ecological system development within a certain stage, with the objective of identifying the possible improvement space for unban ecological security evaluation from complex system perspective. Based on the brittle structure model and set pair theory, this paper firstly explored the main research methods of urban ecological security theory and its characteristics, then conducted a theory of complex system brittleness to analyze the urban ecological security brittle factors, brittle primitives, and brittle structure. Furthermore, it conducted a model of urban ecological system brittleness correlation entropy together with a set pair analysis method to discuss its brittleness. And finally, an ecological safety evaluation has been presented based on the empirical case in Chengdu City of China. The theoretical and empirical analysis shows that the brittle correlation entropy of natural subsystem in urban ecological security is the biggest one. The risks from natural subsystem collapse can easily trigger the brittleness of the entire urban system. The corresponding maximum brittle fluctuation entropy is from economic subsystem; it has a largest impact on the entropy change of urban ecosystem. The way of reducing the uncertainty of urban ecological risks is to lower difference degree coefficient in the system. Relevant decision makers should consider to reduce the increasing degree of entropy and eliminate the fluctuation of the brittle factors. Thus, the threats or risks of urban ecological system can be within the acceptable range and under control. An integrated system management combing with brittleness characters of natural, economics, and social subsystem is necessary. It is helpful for the ecological security construction.

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“…Mesoscale urban ecological security research plays a key role because it provides a linkage connecting the macro and micro scales (Ren et al., 2013). It is crucial to assess ecological security at the urban mesoscale, as evidenced in the literature (Du et al., 2013; Gao et al., 2017). The scope of this research covers Xi’an with an area of 10,108 square kilometers, which is classified as mesoscale in physical size.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of ecological security on urban sustainability in Western China—A case study of Xi’an

Wang

2020

Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science

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China has experienced rapid urbanization for over 40 years, posing a significant challenge to the ecological environment and urban sustainability, which is especially critical in cities in Western China. To critically measure the impact of ecological security on urban sustainability, we developed a quantitative approach to obtain evaluation results for decision-making. Taking Xi’an, one of the central cities in Western China, as an example, we used the methodology to conduct a quantitative analysis of the impact of regional ecological security on urban sustainability. The driving force–pressure–state–response framework has been used to construct a comprehensive assessment system and the distribution of ecological security index was analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. To understand the level of urban ecological security, the natural breaks classification method was adopted to divide the results into five categories: highly safe, satisfactorily safe, safe, low value safe, unsafe. The results have shown that the ecological security in Xi’an is basically stable, and the overall status is close to the safe status, but there is a significant difference within the research area. According to the assessment results, the impact of ecological security on sustainability of Xi’an is mainly concerning high-density population, high-density water consumption, high per capita energy consumption, low vegetation coverage, and low-density river corridors. In addition, through the quantitative analysis of the relationship between ecological security and terrain, it is observed that the ecological security level distribution of Xi’an decreases from mountains to tablelands to hills and plains. The paper shows that the comprehensive assessment system of urban ecological security established here is effective to identify natural and artificial ecological security factors that threaten urban sustainability.

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Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach—A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China

Cited by 31 publications

References 39 publications

Driving Factors of Land Change in China’s Loess Plateau: Quantification Using Geographically Weighted Regression and Management Implications

Driving Factors of Land Change in China’s Loess Plateau: Quantification Using Geographically Weighted Regression and Management Implications

A research on urban eco-security evaluation and analysis: complex system’s brittle structure model

Impact of ecological security on urban sustainability in Western China—A case study of Xi’an

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