Urban peacekeeping under siege: attacks on African Union peacekeepers in Mogadishu, 2007–2009

Abstract

Peacekeepers in cities face particular challenges because cities are densely populated and heterogeneous, encompass multiple terrains and fluid features, and host key assets of political, economic and strategic importance. Attacks targeting peacekeepers in cities constitute a recurrent problem, but how do they affect a peace operation's activities? We theorise the effects of such violence on three outcomes: patrolling and outreach, use of force, and the establishment of new bases. We explore these dynamics by analysing intracity dynamics of violence and operational activity following attacks on African Union (AU) peacekeepers in Mogadishu, Somalia, from initial deployment in 2007 through 2009. We use the geo-referenced UCDP Peacemakers at Risk (PAR) dataset and extend it by coding specific city sub-locations for incidences of violence, allowing us to analyse the spatiality of violence involving peacekeepers in Mogadishu. The evidence suggests that during its first three years, attacks on AMISOM significantly hampered its ability to spread out in the city and operate effectively, but did not evidently alter wider patterns of violence in the city. Despite these challenges, AMISOM managed to fulfil the core element of its mandate: preventing the overthrow of the Somali Transitional Federal Government.