Us - China Trade War: Impact on Global Economy and Implication for Ukraine

Abstract

The article analyzes the economic causes and consequences of the trade and economic war between the USA and PRC. The chronology of the introduction of mutual trade barriers by these countries and a temporary compromise in the form of the first round of the Trade Agreement are considered. Based on the systematisation of estimates of the effects of additional trade tariffs, a contradictory (albeit asymmetric) effect on economic growth, investment and employment in these countries is shown, as well as a predicted increase in the overall negative effect for a significant number of countries in the medium term. The main scenarios of the possible development of trade and economic relations between the United States and China are considered. The authors note that the trade war provoked the effects of trade reorientation and the emergence of beneficiaries among third countries, but, due to the transfer mechanism of global value chains, the losses to the world economy can largely overlap the overall short-term gain from such trade substitution. It has been shown that any trade relocation takes time and has additional costs. Alternative suppliers may not have the same transactional supply efficiency. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the trade and economic war between the USA and PRC on the Ukrainian economy. It is substantiated that Ukraine has also acquired certain export opportunities due to a decrease in the American share in the Chinese market. So, the extremely dynamic growth of Ukrainian exports to China, which has been observed in recent years, testifies to the above effect of reorientation and replacement of trade flows. But, at the same time, the deterioration of world economic dynamics as a result of the trade and economic war increases the overall risks for the Ukrainian economy, especially in the medium term. In the context of the current economic policy of Ukraine, the issue of maximizing the utilization of industrial export opportunities to China and expanding the export of goods with higher added value remains important.