Use of large-scale hydrological models to predict dam break-related impacts

Abstract

In this research study, the MGB-IPH (acronym for Large Scale Model in Portuguese - Modelo de Grandes Bacias) was used to simulate the propagation of a dam breach hydrograph estimated from predictor equations for the Três Marias Hydropower Dam, considered one of the largest in South America. The results of the peak flow, peak time and flood spot were compared with results of the Hec-Ras 5.06 model, typically used for local-scale dam break studies. As for the extent of the flood, a hit rate of 84% and a median error of 2.1 meters deep, along 4,055 km2 of the flooded area downstream was obtained. Maximum errors of 13% were observed in the prediction of the peak flow and of 20% for the peak time in distant locations up to 526 km downstream from the dam, thus establishing itself within the limits of the typical uncertainties associated with dam break studies. Thus, the potential of using this type of approach in previous studies of large dam failures is explored, configuring this method as an alternative to the use of robust or simplified models for determining downstream areas potentially affected by these disasters.

Método de dimensionamento espacial aplicado para vazamentos hipotéticos de depósitos de rejeitos de mineração

“…Para gerar os mapas de inundação podem ser utilizados métodos tradicionais, como o HEC-RAS, ou modelos simplificados (Kumar et al, 2017;Santos et al, 2020;Tschiedel et al, 2020). O HEC-RAS é um dos modelos mais utilizados para ensaios de ruptura de barragens e é baseado na equação unidimensional da conservação da energia (Pereira et al, 2017).…”

Computer modeling of territory flooding in the event of an emergency at Seredniodniprovska Hydroelectric Power Plant

“…Therefore, it is necessary to jointly use the forecasting of the parameters of the flooding territories and to carry out measures for the flooding areas calculations. For complex solving of these tasks, human casualties can be re duced to minimum values due to more effective, more targeted, and timely actions of emergency and rescue formations [8].…”