Usefulness of HATCH score in the prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation for Asians

Abstract

The HATCH score (hypertension <1 point>, age >75 years <1 point>, stroke or transient ischemic attack <2 points>, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease <1 point>, and heart failure <2 points>) was reported to be useful for predicting the progression of atrial fibrillation (AF) from paroxysmal to persistent or permanent AF for patients who participated in the Euro Heart Survey. The goal of the current study was to investigate whether the HATCH score was a useful scheme in predicting new-onset AF. Furthermore, we aimed to use the HATCH scoring system to estimate the individual risk in developing AF for patients with different comorbidities. We used the “Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database.” From January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2001, a total of 670,804 patients older than 20 years old and who had no history of cardiac arrhythmias were enrolled. According to the calculation rule of the HATCH score, 599,780 (score 0), 46,661 (score 1), 12,892 (score 2), 7456 (score 3), 2944 (score 4), 802 (score 5), 202 (score 6), and 67 (score 7) patients were studied and followed for the new onset of AF. During a follow-up of 9.0 ± 2.2 years, there were 9174 (1.4%) patients experiencing new-onset AF. The incidence of AF was 1.5 per 1000 patient-years. The incidence increased from 0.8 per 1000 patient-years for patients with a HATCH score of 0 to 57.3 per 1000 patient-years for those with a HATCH score of 7. After an adjustment for the gender and comorbidities, the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of each increment of the HATCH score in predicting AF was 2.059 (2.027–2.093; P < 0.001). The HATCH score was useful in risk estimation and stratification of new-onset AF.

Risco de Fibrilação Atrial após Ablação de Flutter Dependente de Istmo Cavo-Tricuspídeo: Vale a Pena Fazer a Ablação da FA Simultaneamente?

“…In our analysis, no difference was observed between the groups in the occurrence of AF after ablation of CTI-dependent atrial flutter according to the HATCH score. 24 In addiction to predicting the risk of stroke in patients with AF, the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASC score is known to be used for prediction of morbidity and mortality in different clinical settings. However, in the present study, the score did not show statistically significance in predicting AF after ablation CTI-dependent atrial flutter.…”

Clinical scores for outcomes of rhythm control or arrhythmia progression in patients with atrial fibrillation: a systematic review

“…The predictive value of the HATCH score was further explored recently. Suenari et al [ 22 ] tested the score in a 670,804 patients’ cohort to investigate its predictive value of new-onset AF. In this cohort, patients were 20 years older, than in derivation cohort, without AF history.…”

Using the MB-LATER score for predicting arrhythmia outcome after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation: The Guangzhou atrial fibrillation project

“…The HATCH score was first derived to predict the progression from PAF to PeAF, and has also been shown to be a useful predictor of new‐onset AF . Both the CHADS 2 and CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc scores have utility in predicting AF‐related stoke outcomes and guiding anticoagulation treatment, while their predictive value for AF recurrence was modest .…”