Using estimated radiation in crop models amplified the negative impacts of climate variability on maize and winter wheat yields in China

Zhang, Zhentao; Sun, Shuang; Zhang, Fangliang; Guo, Shibo; Guo, Erjing; Liu, Zhijuan; Zhao, Jin; Zhao, Chuang; Li, Tao; Yang, Xiaoguang

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108914

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Furthermore, the correlation between temperature and winter wheat yields is positive in the northern 3H Plain and negative in the southern region under both scenarios. Increased temperature may alleviate cold stress events threatening the overwintering of crops at higher latitudes but could shorten the optimal growth period for winter wheat in the south, adversely affecting yields [60]. Therefore, regional strategies to enhance crop resilience to warmer temperatures are expected to be most beneficial in the southern 3H Plain.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This can be attributed to the fact that increased temperature is beneficial for enhancing thermal resources and reducing the risk of cold stress events, which are more prevalent in high-latitude areas [9]. Conversely, higher temperature can lead to a shorter optimal growth period in low-latitude regions where thermal resources are already abundant, resulting in reduced winter wheat yields [59][60][61].…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Variability On Winter Wheat Yields In The...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections

Xu,

Li,

et al. 2024

Agriculture

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Climate change exerts significant impacts on regional agricultural production. This study assesses the implications of climate change on winter wheat yields in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain), utilizing bias-corrected climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for mid-21st century (2041–2060) and late 21st century (2081–2100) periods under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). These projections were incorporated into the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) CERES-Wheat model to forecast potential alterations in winter wheat production. Initial findings reveal that uncorrected CMIP6 projections underestimated temperature and precipitation while overestimating solar radiation across the southern 3H Plain. Following bias correction through the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method, the regional average biases for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were reduced by 18.3%, 5.6%, and 30.7%, respectively. Under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, mid-21st century simulations predicted a 13% increase in winter wheat yields. Late 21st century projections indicated yield increases of 11.3% and 3.6% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, with a notable 8.4% decrease in yields south of 36° N under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The analysis of climate change factors and winter wheat yields in the 3H Plain under both scenarios identified precipitation as the key contributing factor to yield increases in the northern 3H Plain, while temperature limitations were the primary constraint on yields in the southern region. Consequently, adaptive strategies are essential to mitigate climate change impacts, with a particular focus on addressing the challenges posed by elevated temperature in the southern 3H Plain.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impacts Of Climate Variability On Winter Wheat Yields In The...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections

Xu,

Li,

et al. 2024

Agriculture

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“…Solar dimming or brightening can substantially change the net amount of radiation arriving at the crop vegetation canopies and then affect crop photosynthesis and growth and, ultimately, crop yields [46,69]. In recent years, there is increasing interest from researchers over the impact of solar radiation on agricultural production [70,71]. The approximately 27% increase in maize yield in the US Corn Belt from 1984-2013 could be attributed to solar brightening [72]; meanwhile, an approximately 19% decrease was induced by solar dimming on the NCP during 1960-2015 [46].…”

Section: Climate Change Influences Crop Growth and Production Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolving Soil Water Limitation Changes Maize Production Potential and Biomass Accumulation but Not Its Relationship with Grain Yield

Zhou,

Song

et al. 2023

Agronomy

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As a key indicator of agricultural production capacity, crop production potential is critical to evaluate the impacts of climate variability on agriculture. However, less attention has been paid to the pattern of biomass accumulation in response to crop climatic production potential and its relation to grain yield formation at an intra-seasonal time scale, especially under evolving soil water limitation. In this study, we combined a mechanism-based empirical model with field experiments conducted at different growth stages of maize on the Northern China Plain (NCP) to assess the dynamic response of biomass accumulation to climatic production potential and its relation to grain yield. The results showed that the ability of climatic production potential to estimate biomass was significantly improved when a vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was incorporated, with the root mean square error (RMSE) reduced by 33.3~41.7% and 45.6~47.2% under rainfed and evolving soil water limitation conditions, respectively. Drought significantly decreased biomass accumulation mainly by decreasing the intrinsic growth rate and delaying the occurrence timing of maximum growth. Moreover, grain yield shared a nonlinear and saturating relationship with biomass across rainfed and water deficit conditions. The results imply that evolving soil water limitation changes the process of biomass accumulation but not its relationship with grain yield. These findings provide useful information to estimate crop production potential under abiotic stresses and improve the accuracy of crop yield prediction.

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Impacts of changes in climate extremes on maize yields over Mainland China

Deng,

Tan,

Liu

2024

Food Sec.

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Using estimated radiation in crop models amplified the negative impacts of climate variability on maize and winter wheat yields in China

Cited by 8 publications

References 62 publications

Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections

Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections

Evolving Soil Water Limitation Changes Maize Production Potential and Biomass Accumulation but Not Its Relationship with Grain Yield

Impacts of changes in climate extremes on maize yields over Mainland China

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