Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest1

Abstract

Huang, Biao, Christian Langpap, and Richard M. Adams, 2011. Using Instream Water Temperature Forecasts for Fisheries Management: An Application in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):861‐876. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00562.x Abstract: Water temperature is an important factor affecting aquatic life within the stream environment. Cold water species, such as salmonids, are particularly susceptible to elevated water temperatures. This paper examines the potential usefulness of short‐term (7 to 10 days) water temperature forecasts for salmonid management. Forecasts may be valuable if they allow the water resource manager to make better water allocation decisions. This study considers two applications: water releases from Lewiston Dam for management of adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Klamath River and leasing water from agriculture for management of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the John Day River. We incorporate biophysical models and water temperature distribution data into a Bayesian framework to simulate changes in fish populations and the corresponding opportunity cost of water under different levels of temperature forecast reliability. Simulation results indicate that use of the forecasts results in increased fish production and that marginal costs decline as forecast reliability increases, suggesting that provision and use of such stream temperature forecasts would have potential value to society.

Forecasting river temperatures in real time using a stochastic dynamics approach

“…Decades of research has resulted in a suite of statistically and physically based water temperature models that accurately predict thermal dynamics [ Caissie , ]. Reliable predictions of water temperatures downstream of reservoirs have proven useful in making informed water release decisions [ Gu et al ., ; Huang et al ., ; Krajewski et al ., ; Thomann , ]. However, relatively little work has been done to apply such models operationally to forecast the downstream impact of management scenarios in real time.…”

“…[2] In recent years, aquatic ecologists and water managers have shown a renewed interest in the dynamics of river temperatures, because thermal regimes play a key role in structuring freshwater ecosystems [Fausch et al, 2002;Huang et al, 2011;Kaushal et al, 2010;Mccullough et al, 2009;Olden and Naiman, 2010;Poole and Berman, 2001]. Aquatic organisms tend to have characteristic thermal tolerance limits that are governed by temperature sensitivity in the rates of critical physiological processes.…”

“…A trade-off typically exists between broad extent and fine resolution. Models that predict temperature at the landscape scale often operate at coarse spatial resolution, and models that cover multiple years operate on a daily or weekly time scale [Ahmadi-Nedushan et al, 2007;Caissie et al, 2001;Flint and Flint, 2008;Huang et al, 2011;Mohseni et al, 1998]. However, there are no significant theoretical or computational constraints to predict water temperature at fine scales across broad domains to capture ecosystem dynamics.…”

Strategic planning for instream flow restoration: a case study of potential climate change impacts in the central Columbia River basin

“…However, this case study focuses on instream flow quantities respective to the habitat needs of ESA-listed salmonids (Table 1) during the dry summer months -July, August, and September. Several regions of the Columbia River basin are already flow limited during summer when salmonid populations are threatened by rising water temperatures and limited habitat connectivity (WADOE, 2005;Huang et al, 2011). Currently, there are 16 critical Columbia sub-basins experiencing flow conditions too low for sustaining endangered salmon populations (WADOE, 2005).…”

Dam removal and anadromous salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) conservation in California

“…Some larger dams, however, release cold water from the bottom of reservoirs. Coldwater releases that maintain or increase downstream base flows will usually reduce water temperatures in summer and fall (Huang et al 2011;Yates et al 2008), effectively shifting cold-water rearing habitat for juvenile anadromous salmonids from headwaters to below reservoirs (Ward and Stanford 1983). Coldwater releases are often crucial for sustaining remnant salmonid populations.…”