Using N-BEATS ensembles to predict automated guided vehicle deviation

Abstract

A novel AGV (Automated Guided Vehicle) control architecture has recently been proposed where the AGV is controlled remotely by a virtual Programmable Logic Controller (PLC), which is deployed on a Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC) platform and connected to the AGV via a radio link in a 5G network. In this scenario, we leverage advanced deep learning techniques based on ensembles of N-BEATS (state-of-the-art in time-series forecasting) to build predictive models that can anticipate the deviation of the AGV’s trajectory even when network perturbations appear. Therefore, corrective maneuvers, such as stopping the AGV, can be performed in advance to avoid potentially harmful situations. The main contribution of this work is an innovative application of the N-BEATS architecture for AGV deviation prediction using sequence-to-sequence modeling. This novel approach allows for a flexible adaptation of the forecast horizon to the AGV operator’s current needs, without the need for model retraining or sacrificing performance. As a second contribution, we extend the N-BEATS architecture to incorporate relevant information from exogenous variables alongside endogenous variables. This joint consideration enables more accurate predictions and enhances the model’s overall performance. The proposed solution was thoroughly evaluated through realistic scenarios in a real factory environment with 5G connectivity and compared against main representatives of deep learning architectures (LSTM), machine learning techniques (Random Forest), and statistical methods (ARIMA) for time-series forecasting. We demonstrate that the deviation of AGVs can be effectively detected by using ensembles of our extended N-BEATS architecture that clearly outperform the other methods. Finally, a careful analysis of a real-time deployment of our solution was conducted, including retraining scenarios that could be triggered by the appearance of data drift problems.