Using participatory modeling processes to identify sources of climate risk in West Africa

Abstract

similar climates and smallholder agricultural systems, but widely differing political and cultural contexts. Stakeholders involved in the agricultural sector in Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria participated in either a scenario planning process or a causal loop diagramming process, in which they were asked about drivers of agricultural productivity and food security, and sources of risk, including climate risk, between the present and mid-century (2035-2050). Participants in all three workshops identified both direct and indirect sources of climate risk, as they interact with other critical drivers of agricultural systems change, such as water availability, political investment in agriculture, and land availability. We conclude that participatory systems methods are a valuable addition to the suite of methodologies for analyzing climate risk and that scientists and policy-makers would do well to consider dynamic interactions between drivers of risk when assessing the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

Enabling Reflexive Decision-Making Towards Transformative Adaptation

“…Regional comparisons are drawn from a range of sources that summarize and reflect on the process of managing attendance, managing complexity, and managing Fig. 1 Summary of locations where ASSAR used participatory processes relationships (Olabisi et al 2018;Totin et al 2018a;Alare et al 2017;Ottermann 2017;Perez et al 2018;Poonacha 2018;Sidibé and Totin 2018;ASSAR Project 2018b, 2019bThompson-Hall 2017).…”

A holistic vision for food security research

“…This work has a distinct focus on inter-and intra-family behavioral dynamics. Similar to Schmitt Olabisi et al (2018), this work found that the development of unpredictable rainfall patterns, associated with climate change, has proven to be a significant challenge to traditional farming practices that were essential to providing a food secure household. Additionally, farmers are finding it difficult to adapt to other external challenges, such as the loss of labor due to the migration of young men to urban areas in search of work to support their families.…”

“…Schmitt Olabisi et al (2018) focus their study on climatic risks as one of the underlying causes of food insecurity in Nigeria, Ghana, and Mali. The researchers organized three workshops where they worked with stakeholders to build casual loop diagrams (Nigeria) and generate future scenarios (Ghana and Mali) to evaluate the resilience of agricultural systems and identify potential trajectories of food production given the long-term changes in precipitation and temperature.…”

Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems

“…The goal of the national workshop was to identify both direct and indirect sources of climate risk in Nigeria, as well as their dynamics and interactions. The method used was participatory modeling with a diverse group of scientists, policy-makers, and private-sector agricultural experts from around the country as described in [22]. Workshop participants diagrammed the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector, as well as exacerbating or mitigating factors, such as declining soil fertility.…”