Using species distribution modeling to set management priorities for mammals in northern Thailand

Trisurat, Yongyut; Bhumpakphan, Naris; Reed, David; Kanchanasaka, Budsabong

doi:10.1016/j.jnc.2012.05.002

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…However, the realized distribution of a species cannot be accurately estimated without knowing with confidence where it is absent (Lobo et al ., ). Most of the SDM geographical representations for hyperdiverse groups should thus be interpreted with caution when used to delimit protected areas (Ferrier, ; Loiselle et al ., ; Guisan & Thuiller, ; Cabeza et al ., ; Trisurat et al ., ), as they reflect an intermediate state between realized and potential distributions. In this study we show that the use of potential instead of realized distributions can also be useful for conservation purposes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do protected areas represent species' optimal climatic conditions? A test usingIberian water beetles

Sánchez‐Fernández

Abellán

Picazo

et al. 2013

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim To assess the effectiveness of protected area networks in representing the climatic niche of Iberian water beetle species.Location Iberian Peninsula. Methods We used distribution data from 133 endemic water beetle species in the Iberian Peninsula. Climatic potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional-envelope procedure based on climatic data (both current and future) and observed occurrences. Mahalanobis distances were calculated to obtain continuous climatic suitability values within the climatic potential distribution. Two protected area networks were assessed: National Parks (NPs) and Natura 2000 (N 2000 ). The average climatic suitability value for the cells overlapping with protected areas was calculated and compared with the average value of 10,000 random samples from the same number of cells within their entire potential distribution, which allowed to identify species whose climatic niches were optimally or marginally represented.Results Fifty-seven and 104 of the 107 considered taxa were represented with at least one occurrence in NPs and N 2000 , respectively, and the climatic potential distributions of 93 and all 107 taxa overlapped with NPs and N 2000 . While the climatic niches of 48 and 38 taxa were marginally represented in NPs and N 2000 , the climatic niches of only 11 and 29 were optimally represented by these two protected area networks. When predicted future climatic conditions were considered, both the climatic suitability values and the number of species whose potential distribution was represented by protected areas decreased.Main conclusions Although the representation of endemic Iberian taxa could be considered adequate, these results show that for most of them the protected networks tend to include areas with climatic conditions close to the species tolerance limit, and the expected climate change only worsened this scenario. Thus, current protected areas cannot be considered to guarantee the long-term survival of the species considered in this study.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do protected areas represent species' optimal climatic conditions? A test usingIberian water beetles

Sánchez‐Fernández

Abellán

Picazo

et al. 2013

Diversity and Distributions

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“…In addition to diminishing suitable habitat for flora and fauna, deforestation also creates habitat fragmentation, reduces patch size, and isolates suitable habitats [13,14]. Larger mammals are more vulnerable than medium-and small-sized species [15][16][17][18]. This is the case for plant diversity as well [19].…”

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confidence: 99%

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change from Socio-Economic Drivers and Their Impact on Biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand

2019

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The rate of deforestation declined steadily in Thailand since the year 2000 due to economic transformation away from forestry. However, these changes did not occur in Nan Province located in northern Thailand. Deforestation is expected to continue due to high demand for forest products and increased agribusiness. The objectives of this paper are (1) to predict land-use change in the province based on trends, market-based and conservation scenarios, (2) to quantify biodiversity, and (3) to identify biodiversity hotspots at greatest risk for future deforestation. This study used a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) to allocate aggregated land demand for three scenarios and employed FRAGSTATS to determine the spatial pattern of land-use change. In addition, the InVEST Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework was used to estimate biodiversity expressed as the remaining mean species abundance (MSA) relative to their abundance in the pristine reference condition. Risk of deforestation and the MSA values were combined to determine biodiversity hotspots across the landscape at greatest risk. The results revealed that most of the forest cover in 2030 would remain in the west and east of the province, which are rugged and not easily accessible, as well as in protected areas. MSA values are predicted to decrease from 0.41 in 2009 to 0.29, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively, under the trends, market-based and conservation scenarios in 2030. In addition, the low, medium, and high biodiversity zones cover 46, 49 and 6% of Nan Province. Protected areas substantially contribute to maintaining forest cover and greater biodiversity. Important measures to protect remaining cover and maintain biodiversity include patrolling at-risk deforestation areas, reduction of road expansion in pristine forest areas, and promotion of incentive schemes for farmers to rehabilitate degraded ecosystems.Sustainability 2019, 11, 649 2 of 22 or NESDP [4] focused on commercial crops for international trade. This national policy resulted in a rapid increase of cultivated land area by two-fold, from 15% in 1961 to 31% in 1980 [5]. In addition, the agricultural sector contributed more than 25% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Thailand [6] and more than 70% of the total population worked in the agricultural sector [7].Since 1980, Thailand's national policies have shifted from an agriculture-based economy to manufacturing and service sectors. Thailand is currently in the fourth stage (Thailand 4.0) in which the economy moved towards value-based and innovative products [8]. The contribution of the service sector now accounts for over 50% of the total GDP. In contrast, the contribution of the agricultural sector dropped below 10% after 1990 [6]. Nevertheless, a large proportion of the labor force (56% of total population) is involved in the agricultural sector [7].Agricultural and economic development policies resulted in both positive and negative consequences. In addition, agricultural policies largely maximize economic return, while degrade b...

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“…In contrast, one dilemma with mapping concerns which species should be evaluated because it is impossible to map them all (Miller and Allen, 1994;Mittermeier et al, 2004;Trisurata et al, 2012). Species confined to very small distribution areas, so-called narrow endemic species (Andersen et al, 1997;Kruckeberg and Rabinowitz, 1985;Williams et al, 1996), pose very important conservation issues due to their great vulnerability to extinction (Raedig et al, 2010) and could be considered as a priority for action, including modelling and mapping efforts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

At the intersection of cultural and natural heritage: Distribution and conservation of the type localities of Italian endemic vascular plants

Brundu

Peruzzi

Domina

et al. 2017

Biological Conservation

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A B S T R A C TWe conducted a GIS spatial analysis with the aim of providing the first quantitative large-scale overview of the distribution patterns of 1536 type localities (loci classici) of 1216 Italian endemic vascular plants and their relationship with a set of descriptive variables. Whereas some variables were used to model the presence-absence distribution patterns of the type localities for the whole set of endemics as well as for the subset of narrow endemics, others (e.g., presence inside or outside protected areas and Italian Important Plant Areas) were considered with the purpose of assessing potential assets or risks for conservation.The largest number of type localities was found within the Mediterranean biogeographic region (1134),http://dx

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Using species distribution modeling to set management priorities for mammals in northern Thailand

Cited by 20 publications

References 52 publications

Do protected areas represent species' optimal climatic conditions? A test usingIberian water beetles

Do protected areas represent species' optimal climatic conditions? A test usingIberian water beetles

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change from Socio-Economic Drivers and Their Impact on Biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand

At the intersection of cultural and natural heritage: Distribution and conservation of the type localities of Italian endemic vascular plants

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