Utilising citizen science data to rapidly assess potential wild bridging hosts and reservoirs of infection: avian influenza outbreaks in Great Britain

Abstract

High pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a rapidly evolving orthomyxovirus causing significant economic and environmental harm. Wild birds are a key reservoir of infection and an important source of viral incursions into poultry populations. However, we lack thorough understanding of which wild species drive incursions and whether this changes over time. We explored associations between abundances of 152 avian species and cases of HPAI in poultry premises across Great Britain between October-2021 and January-2023. Spatial generalised additive models were used, with species abundance distributions sourced from eBird modelled predictions. Associations were investigated at the species-specific level and across aggregations of species. During autumn/winter, associations were generally strongest with waterbirds such as ducks and geese; however, we also found significant associations in other groups such as non-native gamebirds, and rapid change in species-specific associations over time. Our results demonstrate the value of citizen science in rapid exploration of wild reservoirs of infection as facilitators of disease incursion into domestic hosts, especially in regions where surveillance programmes in wild birds are absent. This can be a critical step towards improving species-specific biosecurity measures and targeted surveillance; particularly for HPAIV, which has undergone sudden shifts in host-range and continues to rapidly evolve.