Validation of Ground Based Solar Irradiance Measurements against Meteosat-Msg and Himawari-8 Satellite Data

Abstract

The study conducts a comparative analysis of solar radiation estimation methods, assessing the efficacy of the Heliosat-2 algorithm against ground measurements across seven distinct countries: Netherlands, Spain, Japan, Namibia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and India. To achieve this, it utilizes two distinct satellite data sources—Himawari-8 for Japan and Metosat Second Generation-MSG for the rest of the countries—spanning the years Jan 2022 to April 2024. A robust methodology for determining albedo parameters specific to Heliosat-2 was developed. During cloudy days, the estimates provided by Heliosat-2 generally exceeded the ground measurements in all the countries. Conversely, on clear days, there was a tendency for underestimation, as indicated by the median value of the mean bias (MB) across most of the countries. The Heliosat-2 model slightly underestimates daily radiation values, with a median MB ranging from −27.5 to +10.2 W.m⁻². Notably, the median root mean squared error (RMSE) on clear days is significantly lower, with values ranging from 24.8 to 108.7 W.m⁻², compared to cloudy days where RMSE values lie between 75.3 and 180.2 W.m⁻². In terms of R² values, both satellites show a strong correlation between the estimated and actual values, with a median value consistently above 0.86 on a monthly scale and over 92% of daily data points falling within ±2 standard deviation.