Validation of the arthro-MAP Nomogram to Predict Major Complications after Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in Chinese Population

Abstract

Background A nomogram(arthro-MAP) predict major complications after Hip and Knee Arthroplasty has been establish by England people. The goal of this study is to externally validate the nomogram whether suitable for Chinese people or not. Methods A total of 414 elderly patients with Hip and Knee Arthroplasty underwent surgical treatment in the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University from March 1, 2017 to August 31, 2019 were included into this study. Variables assessed were lowest intraoperative HR, EBL, preoperative BUN, procedure type, race, ASA score, comorbidities, presence of fracture. Receiver-operator characteristics (ROC) curve analysis, calibration (HL) and DCA were used to evaluate predictive properties of the nomogram. Results A total of 414 patients were consecutively enrolled. 47 patients (11.35%) presented a major complications after Hip and Knee Arthroplasty. The arthro-MAP nomogram presented an AUC of 0.816; 95%CI: 0.757–0.875 to predict major complications. At the calibration plot x2 = 17.13, P > 0.05, means the arthro-MAP nomogram appears to be well-calibrated in Chinese population, with predicted outcome rates closely reflecting the observed rates. Conclusions Although further studies are needed to confirm our results, the arthro-MAP nomogram was, in our experience, an excellent tool to predict major complications after Hip and Knee Arthroplasty, can be perform well in the Chinese population.