Validation of Three Postoperative Risk Prediction Models for Intensive Care Unit Mortality after Cardiac Surgery

Abstract

All three models demonstrated good discrimination for the first 7 days after cardiac surgery. After recalibration, logCASUS and RACE scores appear to be most useful for daily risk prediction after cardiac surgery. If appropriately calibrated, postoperative cardiac surgery risk prediction models have the potential to be useful tools after cardiac surgery.

Reply to “Developing a Risk Prediction Model for Intensive Care Unit Mortality after Cardiac Surgery”

“…We thank Liu et al for their letter regarding our manuscript "Validation of three postoperative risk prediction models for intensive care unit mortality after cardiac surgery." 1 As they point out, the suboptimal calibration of the models we analyzed is likely to be multifactorial. The mortality rate after cardiac surgery has fallen over time resulting in calibration drift which has significantly affected overall model calibration.…”

Developing a Risk Prediction Model for Intensive Care Unit Mortality after Cardiac Surgery

“…For example, in the Howitt et al's study including a total of 2,255 patients who underwent various cardiac surgery, early mortality rate in the ICU only was 1.8%. 1 Second, the cause of early death after cardiac surgery is often multifactorial. Besides the risk factors included in the three studied models, other known factors have been also associated with the increased mortality rate after cardiac surgery.…”

“…Fu-Shan Xue: This author had carefully read the article of Howitt et al, 1 analyzed their methods and data, revised the comment points and this letter, and is the author responsible for this manuscript. Fu-Shan Xue had seen and approved the final manuscript.…”