The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) has accentuated the role and interplay of numerous educational factors, inviting pedagogical research concerning online education. Using self-determination theory's basic psychological needs and fundamental learning theories, identified educational factors were integrated into three pathways: (1) autonomy, technology acceptance, and self-regulation of learning; (2) relatedness, authentic happiness, and a classroom community; and (3) competency, harmonious passion, and trait conscientiousness. This study extends educational research by elucidating the relationships between psychological need fulfilment, educational factors, and students' expectations of their future grades during the impact of COVID-19. Australian university students (N = 226, 77% female) completed questionnaires assessing their experience of home isolation, factors of each hypothesised pathway, and their expected grades. Structural equation modelling revealed that higher need fulfilment significantly predicted engagement in educational factors and that educational factors are complexly interrelated, providing resilience, motivation, and the mechanisms that facilitate learning. Most importantly, relatedness between academics and students positively influenced all learning pathways. Reciprocal determinism demonstrated the most substantial association with expected grades, and new insight was gained into the interrelationships of passion, trait conscientiousness, and self-regulation of learning.