Validity of foresight derived from the evaluation of past activities in Japan

Yokoo, Yoshiko; Okuwada, Kumi

doi:10.1504/ijfip.2012.049776

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Japan's long experience in Foresight, qualifies the undertaking body, NISTEP, to evaluate the predictions of the earlier Foresight exercises. The evaluation of earlier Foresight activities indicates that Japan has reached over 60% of realization rate of earlier predictions (Yokoo and Okuwada, 2012).…”

Section: Japanmentioning

confidence: 95%

The Last and Next 10 Years of Foresight

Sarıtas

Anim

2017

SSRN Journal

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This study investigates trends in Foresight and establishes how the changing global landscape has affected the Foresight activities over the last decade. The strategies these countries have adopted to counter the effects and make the best of these changes have also been examined. Key issues discussed in the paper cover the drivers of the trends in the past and next decade and their future implications for Foresight. The study identifies trends in Foresight through case studies. Five leading countries in Foresight have been selected for analysis including Finland, the UK, Germany, Japan and Russia. A set of indicators have been designed for the purpose of benchmarking national Foresight activities of these five countries. Among the indicators are: the contextual landscape, scope of the exercise, regularity of using Foresight for policy formulation, funding mechanisms, scale of participation as well as use and implementation. The results of the study show that, Foresight activities have changed in content, context and process over the last ten years. First, Foresight has moved from large scale national activities and become narrower in scope with attempts to focus on specific grand challenges, sectors or technologies. Second, in the quest to provide a broader picture of the social environment within which the results of the study will be implemented in order to ensure robust STI policy, Foresight exercises have become more extensive by involving more social stakeholders and expert consultations. Also, technological applications have shortened the entire Foresight process as new tools have been created for gathering and processing data, eliciting opinions, and disseminating them widely. This is a result of more intensive use of technologies and electronic platforms for the purpose of Foresight studies. Recent Foresight literature lacks a comprehensive overview of the changing landscape of policy making, motivations for organizing Foresight activities and processes of implementing Foresight. The present study aims to fill this gap with a holistic analysis of the context, content and process of Foresight activities in the past 10 years, and discusses possible transformations in the next 10 years.

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Section: Japanmentioning

confidence: 95%

The Last and Next 10 Years of Foresight

Sarıtas

Anim

2017

SSRN Journal

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“…As a merit to the continuity of the surveys, they have proven able to evaluate the past foresight activities 10) . The post-project assessments, mainly from the viewpoint of realization, were started after 20 years of early surveys.…”

Section: Subjects In Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Chronological Analysis on Conciousness of Experts to Society

Okuwada

Yokoo

Tsutsui

2015

Shakai gijutsu kenkyuu rombunshuu

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Visualizing through a text-mining approach for continuous foresight survey reports revealed chronological trends of experts' consciousness over 40 years. The direction of their consciousness largely changed after 2000 onward having stronger relationships with society, following subdivided and relatively incremental decades before 2000. Their consciousness to society has spread widely after 2000. The chronological changes of some frequently occurring words revealed some emerging fields and their necessity of societal embeddedness. However, there has still been a large inclination among the fields, which suggests an insufficiency of their consciousness to society. This has led us to have fears of essential seeds-needs incongruency in innovation ecosystems in Japan.

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“…ey are coordinated by the Council for Scientific and Technological Policy (CSTP). It should be noted that Japanese foresight focuses primarily on two key areas: longterm trends review and determining of promising technologies and monitoring of the current state of rural development [18]. In China, two major foresight initiatives have been successfully implemented in recent years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic Planning of Rural Development Based on Foresight Methodologies

et al. 2020

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The purpose of the study is to establish scientific rational for the use of the foresight methodology in the strategic planning of rural development. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the development of an algorithm for strategic planning of rural development based on the foresight methodology and by the formation of a set of practical recommendations for the use of foresight tools at the municipal level of management in rural areas. The paper states that modern foresight methodology is quite flexible and multifaceted. It can be widely applied at different hierarchical levels of management. In our research, we consistently analyzed foresight projects and programs used in the rural management and development forecasting. The use of a systematic approach in combination with foresight technologies allows developing strategic plans for the rural areas development from the perspective of improvement of their economic and social component. The research presents the foresight algorithm of the rural development strategic planning and its implementation mechanism at the municipal level. The main components of the foresight testing procedure of the rural areas economic development were determined on the example of such a classic agricultural region of the Russian Federation as the Republic of Bashkortostan. The results of a comprehensive foresight analysis of alternative scenarios of the rural development have been formed. We summarized that the foresight technologies should be used as a system tool for the formation and implementation of the strategy of the sustainable rural areas development. The main results of the study include summarizing the experience of foresight studies on the rural areas development; design of an algorithm of strategic planning of the rural areas development based on the foresight methodology; the formation of alternative scenarios of the rural areas development at the regional level.

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Validity of foresight derived from the evaluation of past activities in Japan

Cited by 11 publications

References 5 publications

The Last and Next 10 Years of Foresight

The Last and Next 10 Years of Foresight

Chronological Analysis on Conciousness of Experts to Society

Strategic Planning of Rural Development Based on Foresight Methodologies

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