Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change

Zhao, Jin; Yang, Xiaoguang; Liu, Zhijuan; Lv, Shuo; Wang, Jing; Dai, Shuwei

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y

Cited by 36 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Moreover, in the comparison of GPP trends around the breakpoints, the most obvious positive (>1.5 g C m −2 month −1 ) and negative (<−1.5 g C m −2 month −1 ) values of the difference of GPP trends between POB and PRB respectively reflect the promotion and suppression effect on driving factors that causing the emergence of breakpoints. Although GPP trend increased in the Great Xing'an Mountains area, North China Plain, and Southwestern China, the large proportion the decline of GPP trend after breakpoint reflects that vegetation growth was inhibited by environmental stresses especially in South part of Northeastern China (Zhao et al 2016), North China (Brogaard et al 2005), Northwestern China , and coastal areas of Southeastern China . This calls for a large demand for further protection of the current vegetation and continuous conduction of more ecological restoration projects in the regions with PN and NN GPP trends shift types.…”

Section: Patterns Of Gpp Breakpoints and Shift Of Gpp Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and controls of terrestrial gross primary productivity of China during 2000–2016

Xiao

Miao

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is an important flux that drives the global carbon cycle. However, quantifying the trend and the control factor of GPP from the pixel level to the regional level is still a challenge. We generated monthly GPP dataset using the vegetation photosynthesis model and calculated the interannual linear trend for China during 2000-2016. The Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend method was applied to detect the timing of breakpoint and trends shift of monthly GPP, while boosted regression tree analysis was used to identify the most important factor and its relative influence on GPP based on gridded leaf area index (LAI), aerosol optical thickness, and NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II meteorological data. The results show that annual mean GPP was significantly (P<0.001, R 2 =0.78) increased, especially in the Loess Plateau and South China, from 2000 to 2016. The change rate of annual mean GPP declined from 18.82 g C m −2 yr −1 in 2000-2008 to 3.48 g C m −2 yr −1 in 2008-2016. About 55.4% of the breakpoints occur between 2009 and 2011 and was mainly distributed in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Central China, Southwestern China, and South China, and negative oriented GPP trends variation type still accounts for about 28.76%. LAI and temperature related factors generally had the highest relative influence on GPP in the north part and south part of China, respectively. Our study indicates that the ecological restoration projects and rapid urbanization have respectively induced the most obvious increase and decrease trends of GPP in China. Land cover change and climate change are the main reasons for GPP dynamics in the north and south part of China, respectively.

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Section: Patterns Of Gpp Breakpoints and Shift Of Gpp Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and controls of terrestrial gross primary productivity of China during 2000–2016

Xiao

Miao

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…When the Western Pacific vapor meets that from the Indian Ocean, a subtropical high-pressure system forms. Then heavy rainfall occurs when the subtropical high-pressure system meets the cold air from Northwestern China or other parts of China [43][44][45]. The larger the subtropical high-pressure system, the more severe the flooding disaster.…”

Section: Rainfall Formationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flooding Hazards across Southern China and Prospective Sustainability Measures

Lyu

Cheng

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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The Yangtze River Basin and Huaihe River Basin in Southern China experienced severe floods 1998 and 2016. The reasons for the flooding hazards include the following two factors: hazardous weather conditions and degradation of the hydrological environment due to anthropogenic activities. This review work investigated the weather conditions based on recorded data, which showed that both 1998 and 2016 were in El Nino periods. Human activities include the degradations of rivers and lakes and the effects caused by the building of the Three Gorges Dam. In addition, the flooding in 2016 had a lower hazard scale than that in 1998 but resulted in larger economic losses than that of 1998. To mitigate urban waterlogging caused by flooding hazards, China proposed a new strategy named Spongy City (SPC) in 2014. SPC promotes sustainable city development so that a city has the resilience to adapt to climate change, to mitigate the impacts of waterlogging caused by extreme rainfall events. The countermeasures used to tackle the SPC construction-related problems, such as local inundation, water resource shortage, storm water usage, and water pollution control, are proposed for city management to improve the environment.

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“…In 2017, the total maize production in Jilin Province was 32,570,800 tons, accounting for 15% of the national maize production. Maize production in Jilin Province directly influences the national maize production [8]. As a crucial food crop in China, maize production must increase to meet the needs of the Chinese population, which expected to peak at 1.5 billion in 2033 [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Yield Data Provide New Insight into the Dynamic Evaluation of Maize’s Climate Suitability: A Case Study in Jilin Province, China

Zhao

Zhang

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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Examining the effects of climate change on spring maize, and its suitability under dynamic cultivation patterns, will aid strategic decision-making for future agricultural adaptation. This paper investigates the climate suitability of spring maize, based on daily data from 50 meteorological stations, and statistics on maize yield and area at the county level in Jilin Province, China, between 1986 and 2015. Based on a significant correlation between the cultivation patterns indicator ≥10 °C accumulated temperature (AAT10) and the average yield (R2 = 0.503), the yield data are used to determine suitable thresholds for meteorological factors under the dynamic cultivation pattern, and a fuzzy fitness approach is used to evaluate the climate suitability. The results showed a good agreement between suitability estimates and scaled observed yields (average d = 0.705). Moreover, good consistency between cultivation patterns, climate suitability and yield show that the late-maturing varieties of maize have gradually moved northward and eastward, and the areas of high suitability and high yield have gradually expanded eastward. In addition, drought and chilling hazard factors limit the suitability of climate resources, especially in the eastern and western regions.

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Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change

Cited by 36 publications

References 25 publications

Trends and controls of terrestrial gross primary productivity of China during 2000–2016

Trends and controls of terrestrial gross primary productivity of China during 2000–2016

Flooding Hazards across Southern China and Prospective Sustainability Measures

Yield Data Provide New Insight into the Dynamic Evaluation of Maize’s Climate Suitability: A Case Study in Jilin Province, China

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