Verifying and assessing the performance of the perturbation strategy in polynomial chaos ensemble forecasts of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico

Wang, Shitao; Li, Guotu; Iskandarani, Mohamed; Hénaff, Matthieu Le; Knio, Omar M.

doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.09.002

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…In particular, high-resolution data near the coast are required to adequately resolve the variability caused by coastal processes. As the higher resolution satellite-derived SL will become available from SWOT (Surface Water Ocean Topography) mission (e.g., Wang et al, 2018) in coming years, such data may provide useful information for the further study of coastal SL variations.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Ocean Dynamics

2024

Frontiers Research Topics

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Frontiers is more than just an open access publisher of scholarly articles: it is a pioneering approach to the world of academia, radically improving the way scholarly research is managed. The grand vision of Frontiers is a world where all people have an equal opportunity to seek, share and generate knowledge. Frontiers provides immediate and permanent online open access to all its publications, but this alone is not enough to realize our grand goals. Frontiers journal seriesThe Frontiers journal series is a multi-tier and interdisciplinary set of openaccess, online journals, promising a paradigm shift from the current review, selection and dissemination processes in academic publishing. All Frontiers journals are driven by researchers for researchers; therefore, they constitute a service to the scholarly community. At the same time, the Frontiers journal series operates on a revolutionary invention, the tiered publishing system, initially addressing specific communities of scholars, and gradually climbing up to broader public understanding, thus serving the interests of the lay society, too. Dedication to qualityEach Frontiers article is a landmark of the highest quality, thanks to genuinely collaborative interactions between authors and review editors, who include some of the world's best academicians. Research must be certified by peers before entering a stream of knowledge that may eventually reach the public -and shape society; therefore, Frontiers only applies the most rigorous and unbiased reviews. Frontiers revolutionizes research publishing by freely delivering the most outstanding research, evaluated with no bias from both the academic and social point of view. By applying the most advanced information technologies, Frontiers is catapulting scholarly publishing into a new generation. What are Frontiers Research Topics?Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers journals series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Ocean Dynamics

2024

Frontiers Research Topics

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“…The realism of the model outputs is also evaluated by comparing ensemble simulations with mooring observations. This study is a continuation of the work in Iskandarani et al (2016) and Wang et al (2018), aiming to provide deeper insights into the LC system's dynamics and its implications for the GoM circulation forecasts. The analysis herein shows that the initial condition perturbations have a significant impact on the LCE detachment and its timing, and that larger and stronger LCFEs are more likely to be followed by an LCE detachment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…Iskandarani et al (2016) shows that the two leading EOF modes mostly perturb the strength of the WFCE. This approach allows us to directly link the output of the simulation to only two uncertain parameters, as done by Iskandarani et al (2016) and Wang et al (2018), and provide the opportunity to investigate the relationship between the initial strength and size of the WFCE and the subsequent LC detachment and formation of the Campeche Bank Cyclonic Eddy (CBCE). The first two EOF modes have been found to be sufficient to represent the uncertainty in the Loop Current region from May 1, 2010 to May 30, 2010, when the first detachment of Eddy Franklin occurred (Iskandarani et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2018).…”

Section: The Hycom Ensemblementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This approach allows us to directly link the output of the simulation to only two uncertain parameters, as done by Iskandarani et al (2016) and Wang et al (2018), and provide the opportunity to investigate the relationship between the initial strength and size of the WFCE and the subsequent LC detachment and formation of the Campeche Bank Cyclonic Eddy (CBCE). The first two EOF modes have been found to be sufficient to represent the uncertainty in the Loop Current region from May 1, 2010 to May 30, 2010, when the first detachment of Eddy Franklin occurred (Iskandarani et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2018). Each ensemble member corresponds to a specified setting of the EOF modal amplitudes, referred to here as x 1 and x 2 (a value of 0 corresponds to not perturbing the control run whereas a value of ±1 corresponds to adding and subtracting the EOF mode at full amplitude).…”

Section: The Hycom Ensemblementioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamical interactions between Loop Current and Loop Current Frontal Eddies in a HYCOM ensemble of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico

Yang,

Le Hénaff,

Mapes

et al. 2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The dynamics of the Loop Current (LC) system in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), specifically during the shedding of Eddy Franklin in 2010, is investigated using an ensemble of simulations. The ensemble members differed in their initial conditions of the West Florida Cyclonic Eddy (WFCE), which in turn significantly influences the timing and occurrence of the Loop Current Eddy (LCE) detachment. The results reveal that a stronger and larger WFCE leads to an early LCE detachment, while a weaker and smaller WFCE results in late or even no detachment within the 60-day simulation period. The initial WFCE’s size and strength are also found to impact the evolution of Campeche Bank Cyclonic Eddies (CBCE). The intrusion of a large and strong WFCE into the LC leads to a rapid growth of potential vorticity (PV) over the eastern Campeche Bank (CB), associated with the formation of a CBCE. In addition, ensemble members with stronger and larger WFCE generally agree with mooring data regarding the velocity evolution over the eastern CB, as well as the CBCE’s northeastward offshore displacement. Our results suggest that the size and strength of the WFCE may serve as predictors of the formation of a CBCE and of an LCE detachment occurrence. This finding has implications for future studies and forecasting methodologies for the GoM circulation.

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On the Construction of Uncertain Time Series Surrogates Using Polynomial Chaos and Gaussian Processes

Sochala

Iskandarani

2019

Math Geosci

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Verifying and assessing the performance of the perturbation strategy in polynomial chaos ensemble forecasts of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico

Cited by 6 publications

References 28 publications

Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Ocean Dynamics

Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Ocean Dynamics

Dynamical interactions between Loop Current and Loop Current Frontal Eddies in a HYCOM ensemble of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico

On the Construction of Uncertain Time Series Surrogates Using Polynomial Chaos and Gaussian Processes

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