Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it.

When Bitcoin encounters information in an online forum: Using text mining to analyse user opinions and predict value fluctuation

“…As shown in past research, slacked estimations of X display a measurably noteworthy connection with Y[17, 22, 38]. Nevertheless, connection does not imply causation.…”

Predicting Virtual World User Population Fluctuations with Deep Learning

“…The proposed method could also be applied to previous findings, e.g., space and NPC management in virtual worlds [63, 64] and to the optimization of virtual currency systems [25]. In addition, it could be used to apply social science theories to virtual worlds so as to understand the large, diverse user base.…”

“…We also gathered data from EVE Online forums [43], which are used by community members to upload postings and exchange opinions regarding topics of common interest [25, 52–54]. Therefore, online forums provide good sources for monitoring the daily responses of many users to certain MMOGs.…”

“…Communities or forums are widely used in MMOGs for information exchange [52]. According to one study, EVE Online linked its forums with economic activity among users [25], which we found to be relevant when predicting fluctuations in the current number of virtual world users. Comments and relevant replies posted by users on general discussion boards in EVE Online forums were crawled, along with post time, comment and reply post times, the number of replies to each comment, and the number of views.…”

“…Moreover, data from prior research has been analyzed from different perspectives [19–24]. In addition, research on forecasting the value of virtual currencies used in economic activity among virtual world users is currently underway [25, 26]. …”