Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: A new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions

White, Randall A.; McCausland, Wendy

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.10.020

Cited by 188 publications

(189 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…However some distal VTs were registered about 15 km due north of the volcano ( Fig. 7b) and were interpreted as fault slips due to stress transfer from the volcano (White and McCausland 2016). Distal VTs were also important in the reactivation of Pinatubo volcano (Harlow et al 1996).…”

Section: Geophysical Registry Of Cotopaxi's Restlessness In 2015mentioning

confidence: 99%

Geophysical Footprints of Cotopaxi’s Unrest and Minor Eruptions in 2015: An Opportunity to Test Scientific and Community Preparedness

Mothes

Ruiz

Viracucha

et al. 2017

Advances in Volcanology

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Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador, experienced notable restlessness in 2015 that was a major deviation from its normal background activity. Starting in April and continuing through November 2015 strong seismic activity, infrasound registry, hikes in SO 2 degassing and flank deformation with small displacements were some of the geophysical anomalies that were registered. Obvious superficial changes, such as small hydromagmatic eruptions, emission of vapor and ash columns, thermal hotspots around the crater and in nearby orifices and exacerbated glacier melting were also observed. Our contribution provides an overview of the 2015 Cotopaxi unrest by presenting the patterns of geophysical data and the sequence of events produced by the volcano. Cotopaxi's last important VEI 4 eruption was in 1877. Then it had devastating effects because of the transit of huge lahars down 3 major drainages. Comparatively, the 2015 activity never surpassed a magnitude VEI 2 and principally produced limited hydromagmatic explosions and semi-continuous low energy emissions and light ashfalls. Given the potential of major destruction from a large Cotopaxi eruption it is important to understand the geophysical fingerprints that characterized the 2015 episode with an eye to identifying onset of future restless periods. Overall, the monitoring activities, the data interpretation, formulation of reasonable eruptive scenarios, and finally, the preparation of a stream of constant information being relayed to concerned authorities and the public, was a real test of the IGEPN's capacity to deal with a complicated eruption situation whose outcome was not apparent at the beginning, but which concluded in a very small eruptive episode. ResumenEn 2015 el volcán Cotopaxi, Ecuador experimento un notable cambio, que fue una desviación importante de su actividad normal de base. A partir de abril y hasta noviembre de 2015 fuerte actividad sísmica, registros de infrasonido, incremento en la desgasificación de SO 2 y pequeños cambios en la deformación de los flancos fueron algunas de las anomalías geofísicas registradas. Evidentes cambios superficiales también fueron observados como pequeñas erupciones hidromagmaticas, emisión de vapor, columnas de cenizas, puntos calientes alrededor del cráter y el deshielo de los glaciares. Nuestra contribución proporciona una visión general de las anomalías del Cotopaxi en el 2015, mediante la presentación de patrones de los datos geofísicos y la secuencia de eventos producidos por el volcán. La última erupción importante del Cotopaxi fue un VEI 4 en 1877. Esta tuvo efectos devastadores debido al descenso de enormes lahares por sus tres drenajes mayores. Comparativamente, la actividad del año 2015 nunca superó una magnitud VEI 2, principalmente produciendo explosiones hidromagmaticas, escasas emisiones y leves caídas de ceniza. Debido a la potencial destrucción por una eventual erupción grande del Cotopaxi es importante entender los registros geofísicos que caracterizó el episodio de 2015 para poder identificar el inic...

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Section: Geophysical Registry Of Cotopaxi's Restlessness In 2015mentioning

confidence: 99%

Geophysical Footprints of Cotopaxi’s Unrest and Minor Eruptions in 2015: An Opportunity to Test Scientific and Community Preparedness

Mothes

Ruiz

Viracucha

et al. 2017

Advances in Volcanology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…White and McCausland [2016] describe a linear relationship between decimal logarithm of cumulative distal volcano-tectonic swarm seismic moment and decimal logarithm of intruded volume for 30 examples of both eruptions and H 2 0 injected at deep wells. In a real-time situation, the detection of a time lag in the early stages of the unrest period could be considered as an indicator that the intruded volume and seismic energy will be notable.…”

Section: Correlation Between Unrest Periodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time lag between deformation and seismicity along monogenetic volcanic unrest periods: The case of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

Lamolda

Felpeto

Bethencourt

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Between 2011 and 2014 there were at least seven episodes of magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island, but only the first one led to a submarine eruption in 2011–2012. In order to study the relationship between GPS deformation and seismicity during these episodes, we compare the temporal evolution of the deformation with the cumulative seismic energy released. In some of the episodes both deformation and seismicity evolve in a very similar way, but in others a time lag appears between them, in which the deformation precedes the seismicity. Furthermore, a linear correlation between decimal logarithm of intruded magma volume and decimal logarithm of total seismic energy released along the different episodes has been observed. Therefore, if a future magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island follows this behavior with a proper time lag, we could have an a priori estimate on the order of magnitude the seismic energy released would reach.

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“…We take M G = EV for the geodetic moment of the dike, where E is the Young's modulus and V is the dike volume (Grandin et al, 2011). (2) We may use the formula proposed by White and McCausland (2016) linking the volume of an intrusion with the cumulative seismic moment released by the seismicity according to log (V) = 0.71 log (M S ) − 5.32, where the volume is taken in m 3 and the moment in Nm.…”

Section: S M Gmentioning

confidence: 99%

Magmatic or Not Magmatic? The 2015–2016 Seismic Swarm at the Long-Dormant Jailolo Volcano, West Halmahera, Indonesia

et al. 2018

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Seismic swarms close to volcanoes often signal the onset of unrest. Establishing whether magma is the culprit and the unrest can be flagged as magmatic may be challenging. Here we analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of a seismic swarm that occurred in November 2015-February 2016 around Jailolo volcano, a long-dormant and poorly studied volcano located on Halmahera island, North Moluccas, Indonesia. The swarm included four M w > 5 earthquakes and hundreds of events were felt by the population. We relocate the earthquakes using both the Indonesian Seismic Network and singlestation location techniques. We find that the earthquakes cluster in a narrow strip, stretching 5 km E-W and 20 km N-S, migrating southward away from Jailolo volcano at ∼10 km/d. We investigate the source mechanisms of the largest earthquakes via full moment tensor inversion. The non-double-couple component is around 50%, such that the earthquakes, besides normal faulting, included a relatively large opening component. After a thorough examination of the possible causes of the Jailolo swarm we conclude that a laterally propagating dike of tens of millions of cubic meters is the triggering mechanism for the seismicity. The swarm marks the first documented magmatic unrest at Jailolo. We find that there is a probability >0.1 that the unrest will last for more than 2 years. This magmatic unrest calls for the classification of Jailolo volcano as active, and for an urgent assessment of the associated volcanic hazard.

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Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: A new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions

Cited by 188 publications

References 86 publications

Geophysical Footprints of Cotopaxi’s Unrest and Minor Eruptions in 2015: An Opportunity to Test Scientific and Community Preparedness

Geophysical Footprints of Cotopaxi’s Unrest and Minor Eruptions in 2015: An Opportunity to Test Scientific and Community Preparedness

Time lag between deformation and seismicity along monogenetic volcanic unrest periods: The case of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

Magmatic or Not Magmatic? The 2015–2016 Seismic Swarm at the Long-Dormant Jailolo Volcano, West Halmahera, Indonesia

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