Vulnerability of informal settlements in the context of rapid urbanization and climate change

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and climate change together increase the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards, undermining urban resilience. It is therefore critical to identify and deepen our understanding of the main variables, and the complex interactions between them, producing and shaping the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards. Identifying factors that challenge or support the efforts of these communities in responding to hazards is also helpful in policymaking for urban resilience. To develop this understanding, it is necessary to conduct detailed research at the local scale. This paper aims to contribute to this knowledge by applying participatory modelling techniques to a particular case study of an informal settlement in Durban, South Africa. The aim is to elucidate how this detailed empirical research can contribute to broader theoretical knowledge on urban vulnerability and resilience in the face of climate change and rapid urbanization. Keywords climate change / Durban / informal settlements / system dynamics / urbanization / vulnerability I. IntroductIon Rapid and unplanned urbanization, in combination with the impacts of climate change, increases the vulnerability of the urban poor to natural hazards. Currently 3.9 billion people, or just over half of the world's population, reside in urban areas. (1) This number is projected to rise to 6.3 billion by 2050, when 66 per cent of the world's population will be considered urban. In absolute terms, this represents an addition of approximately 2.4 billion people to the global urban population. (2) This rapid urbanization process, which will largely take place in cities and towns of the global South, poses significant challenges to both authorities and ordinary citizens, as the majority of these fast-growing urban areas already have high levels of poverty, unemployment, informality and environmental risk, as well as housing and service backlogs. david samuel williams is a junior researcher at climate service center Germany (GerIcs) and specializes in the field of local governance and climate change. Further research interests include the management of hydrological extremes and sustainable development. Address: climate service center Germany (GerIcs), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht-economy and climate Impacts,

Transformasi Adaptasi Bangunan Di Permukiman Informal Tepi Sungai Kahayan

“…Permukiman informal tumbuh dan berkembang akibat adanya urbanisasi dari desa ke kota, namun harga perumahan diperkotaan sangat mahal,sehingga lebih memilih tinggal di area pinggiran kota yang harga lebih murah (Dangol and Day 2017),hal ini mengakibatkan terbentuknya Permukiman informal yang tidak terencana serta adanya urbanisasi (Williams et al 2019) memberikan dampak buruk pada lingkungan, baik langsung maupun tidak langsung terhadap perubahan iklim dan lingkungan yang akan sangat mempengaruhi masyarakat di permukiman tersebut (Schofield and Gubbels 2019) . Hal ini akan memberikan dampak yang besar kepada rakyat yang berpenghasilan rendah di negara-negara berkembang , terutama dalam beberapa dekade mendatang, melalui peningkatan banjir dan kekeringan (Heath, Parker, and Weatherhead 2012).…”

Identifying local governance capacity needs for implementing climate change adaptation in Mauritius

“…The research fields of vulnerability and resilience need to therefore carefully explore and augment the role of governance (Sjöstedt & Povitkina, 2017;Williams et al, 2019). The effectiveness of multi-level governance, understood as the sharing of power across global institutions, regional organizations, and national and subnational governance (Schakel et al, 2015), is often impeded in climate policy processes through a lack of coordination between national and local governance levels.…”

Urban (un)planning and social vulnerability in the context of rapid urbanization and data constraints: a quantitative study of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

“…The result of colonial planning practices in African countries such as segregated spaces have been argued to affect unequal resource distribution and access, resulting in more vulnerable populations (Halla, 2007;Olvera et al, 2003;Williams et al, 2019). In recent years, Turok (2016) notes development in African cities have been geared toward growing middle class populations in the form of real estate projects, signifying growing economies for some segments of the population but not necessarily for all (Watson, 2014a).…”

“…Pelling et al (2018) and improve resilience to hazards on African cities. In this sense, governance of urban spaces is not only limited to official government actors and agencies, but requires coordination of state, private sector, civil society, and other stakeholders in decision making and responding to vulnerabilities (Williams et al, 2019). Watson (2002), however, critiques this assumption of the ability of civil society groups to effect change in African cities and argues for clearer definitions of civil society groups and who they are benefitting, if at all.…”

“…Furthermore, Kironde (2000) notes the continuation of colonial style administrative practices after independence in Dar es Salaam played a role in planning and regulation inefficiencies. In addition to the effect on the built environment, Williams et al (2019) provide the example of Durban, South Africa and argue for effective land use management as critical for maintaining soil permeability and reducing runoff to decrease flood risks and vulnerability. Hence, the African urban context presents various relationships between urban land use and urban planning which are important to explore in relation to vulnerability.…”