Vulnerability of the Maritime Network to Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific and the Northern Indian Ocean

Abstract

Maritime networks are one of the most important types of transportation networks in international logistics and it accounts for 90% of the global trade volume. However, the structure of maritime networks is severely impacted by tropical cyclones, especially the maritime network in the Northwest Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean. This paper investigates the vulnerability of the maritime network in the Northwest Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean to the influence of tropical cyclones through removing ports at high or very high tropical cyclones hazard levels and analyzing how the network structure characteristics change from a complex network point of view. From the results, we find that this maritime network is a small-world network and the degree distribution of ports follows a power law distribution. The ports in East Asia are impacted more severely by the tropical cyclones. Moreover, this maritime network exhibits some vulnerability to tropical cyclones. However, the interconnection of the survived ports is not severely impacted, when the network is attacked by tropical cyclones. The port system in the Philippines is most vulnerable to the influence of tropical cyclones, followed by the ports systems in Japan and China. The paper also shows that it is important for studies of maritime network vulnerability to identify the ports that are both important to the regional and cross-regional logistics and severely impacted by natural hazards. The findings provide a theoretical basis for optimizing the port layout and improving the ability of the network to resist damage caused by tropical cyclones.

Vulnerability of the shipping network of China’s coastal container ports under disruption simulation

“…海洋运输因其运力大、 运费低、 利用天然航道 等特点， 是国际物流中最重要的运输方式， 占全球 贸易运输的 90% [1] ， 对国际间经济交流影响重大。 http://www.resci.cn 响 [6][7][8] 。学者们在交通运输的不同方向有着较多研 究， 这包括不同交通网络的复杂性特征 [9] 、 铁路网络 的空间通达性和拓扑特性 [10] 、 航空网络的空间组织 结构 [11,12] 、 空铁复合网络遭受攻击时系统的失效过 程 [13] 以及港口航运网络研究 [8,[14][15][16] 等。具体从港口航 运网络研究上看， 目前研究较多是基于复杂网络理 论构建港口航运网络模型 [17] 。这种方法视港口为负 责船舶的停泊和货物的装卸的节点， 视运输路线为 连接不同节点港口的通道， 研究内容主要包括网络 的空间结构特征、 动态特征和流动 [18][19][20] 。港口集装 箱航运网络脆弱性研究主要分两个方向： ①仿真模 拟攻击下的航运网络： Wang 等 [21] 使用节点移除策略 模拟随机误差和有针对性的攻击， 用两种方法研究 了集装箱航运网络的不同响应； 王列辉等 [22] 采用随 机和蓄意攻击两种方式分析了中美集装箱航运网 络格局演化与脆弱性； Guo 等 [23] 对蓄意攻击下中日 韩集装箱航运网络进行了分析； 吴迪等 [8] 则对比了 蓄意攻击和随机攻击下丝路海运网络的脆弱性及 风险控制。②自然灾害或特殊事件下的航运网络： Shen 等 [24] 调查西北太平洋和北印度洋的海洋网络 对热带气旋的影响的脆弱性， 并试图识别通过该网 络连接的国家中最脆弱的港口系统； Fang 等 [25] 研究 了受国际事件例如军事冲突、 解除经济制裁和政府 选举等对全球海洋网络动态的影响。 航运网络的脆弱性是影响航运可持续发展的 重要因素之一。目前， 集装箱航运网络脆弱性的分 析方法主要集中为蓄意攻击与随机攻击等持续性 攻击 [21][22][23] ， 对非持续性攻击的研究较少。然而， 现实 中突发的自然和人为灾害极易造成网络中某一节 点的中断， 从而影响其余港口运行， 产生较为严重 的后果。中断模拟指以网络中的某一节点为攻击 对象， 每次模拟一个节点失效时， 该节点及所连接 路径被删除的网络中断情景， 以此完成对样本内所 有节点的仿真攻击 [26] 。这一方法可以较好地模拟航 运网络中某一港口受到攻击中断的情景。因此， 有 必要使用中断模拟分析航运网络脆弱性， 进一步丰 富航运网络脆弱性的研究方法。此外， 学者们常从 国际区域进行个别年份的脆弱性研究 [22,23]…”

Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate

“…They can impact various sectors such as ecosystems, agricultural production, and industries (Hao, 2022; Weinkle et al., 2018; Zscheischler et al., 2020), and can also cause fatalities and property losses through extreme waves, storm surges, and flooding in low‐lying coastal areas (Fang et al., 2020; D. Li, Feng, et al., 2022; Zscheischler et al., 2018). CWPEs further pose a great threat to the maritime networks, infrastructure, and operations at sea (Pryor et al., 2020; Shen et al., 2019) and are relevant for the insurance industry due to their potential to cause damages exceeding the planned insurance coverage (Hamid et al., 2011). Quantifying and understanding the responses of CWPEs to climate change is important to the assessment of future climate risk and the development of climate adaptation strategies (AghaKouchak et al., 2020).…”