War Reparations, Structural Change, and Intergenerational Mobility

Abstract

From 1944 to 1952, largely agrarian Finland had to export, on average, 4% of its yearly GDP in industrial products to the Soviet Union as war reparations. To meet the reparation demands, the Finnish state needed to provide extensive but temporary support to Soviet-assigned industries with insufficient production capacity. This paper documents the long-term impacts of this extensive and temporary industrial policy on industrial and local development and on individual outcomes. Using newly digitized datasets, I show in a difference-in-differences setup that the short-term nonmarket production persistently and significantly increased the employment and production of the manufacturing industries exposed to the policy. These industries plausibly benefited from large initial investments and exposure to export markets associated with the war reparations. The episode further led to local development and structural change, as the more exposed regions became persistently more industrialized. I substantiate these within-Finland results with triple-difference setups employing comparable Norwegian data. I further use Finnish administrative data to study the long-term individual impacts of the episode. Tracking individuals over 30 years, I show that the initial state investments and the persistent change in the local industrial structure increased long-term incomes, led to more educational attainment, and promoted the upward mobility of children and young adults living in the more exposed regions prior to the war reparations period. The observed effects are driven by the more advanced heavy industry, which received the majority of state assistance.