Warm mid-Pliocene conditions without high climate sensitivity: the CCSM4-Utrecht (CESM 1.0.5) contribution to the PlioMIP2

Abstract

Abstract. We present the Utrecht contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CCSM4-Utr). Using a standard pre-industrial configuration and the enhanced PlioMIP2 set of boundary conditions, we perform a set of simulations at various levels of atmospheric pCO2. This allows us to make an assessment of the mid-Pliocene reference (Eoi400) climate versus available proxy records and a pre-industrial control (E280), as well as to determine the sensitivity to different external forcing mechanisms. We find that our simulated Pliocene climate is considerably warmer than the pre-industrial reference, even under the same levels of atmospheric pCO2. Compared to the E280 case, the simulated climate of our Eoi400 is on average almost 5 °C warmer at the surface. Our Eoi400 case is among the warmest within the PlioMIP2 ensemble and only comparable to the results of models with a much higher climate sensitivity (i.e. CESM2, EC-Earth3.3, and HadGEM3). This is accompanied by a considerable polar amplification factor, increased precipitation and greatly reduced sea ice cover. A primary contribution to this enhanced Pliocene warmth is likely our warm model initialisation followed by a long spin-up, as opposed to starting from pre-industrial or present-day conditions. Added warmth in the deep ocean is partly the result of using an altered vertical mixing parametrisation in the Pliocene simulations, but this has a negligible effect at the surface. We find a stronger and deeper Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the Eoi400 case, but the associated meridional heat transport is mostly unaffected. In addition to the mean state, we find significant shifts in the behaviour of the dominant modes of variability at annual to decadal timescales. The Eoi400 ENSO amplitude is greatly reduced (−68 %) versus the E280 one, while the AMOC becomes more variable. There is also a strong coupling between AMOC strength and North Atlantic SST variability in the Eoi400, while North Pacific SST anomalies seem to have a reduced global influence with respect to the E280 through the weakened ENSO

Using paleoecological data to inform decision making: A deep-time perspective

“…Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping data sets have been used to initiate and verify global paleoclimate model experiments for more than 25 years (Chandler et al, 1994(Chandler et al, , 2013Sloan et al, 1996;Haywood et al, 2000;Haywood and Valdes, 2004;Chan et al, 2011;Kamae and Ueda, 2012;Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012;Yan et al, 2012;Peltier, 2017, 2018;Otto-Bliesner et al, 2017;Chan and Abe-Ouchi, 2020;de Nooijer et al, 2020;Hopcroft et al, 2020;Baatsen et al, 2021; Han et al, 2021;Feng et al, 2022;Lohmann et al, 2022). A brief history of the synergy between PRISM and paleoclimate modeling can be found in Haywood et al (2016) and Haywood et al (2021).…”