Wars, presidents, and punctuated equilibriums in US defense spending

Sharp, Travis

doi:10.1007/s11077-019-09349-z

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Existem na literatura dos países como Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Dinamarca, Holanda, Irlanda, Bélgica, Itália, Espanha, Áustria, Portugal, Japão, Brasi, dente outros, que abordaram a Teoria do Equilíbrio Pontudo nas pesquisas sobre execuções orçamentárias (Dezhbakhsh, Tohamy e Aranson, 2003;Jordan, 2003;Wood, 2006;Mortensen, 2009;Hegelich, Fraune e Knollmann, 2014;Silvestre e Araújo, 2015;Flink, 2017;Fittipaldi, Costa e Araújo, 2017;Fowler et al, 2017;Carvalho, 2018;Li e Feiock, 2019;Sharp, 2019 -p-valor > 0,05)distribuição normal (situação de estabilidadecomportamentos incrementaispequenas variações).…”

Section: Estudos Que Utilizaram a Teoria Do Equilíbrio Pontuadounclassified

Ensaio teórico sobre a teoria do equilíbrio pontuado

Silva,

Oliveira

2024

Cuad. Ed. Desar.

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No Brasil, para efetivar as políticas públicas é necessário que se tenha o Plano Plurianual (PPA), a Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias (LDO) e a Lei Orçamentária Anual (LOA). Os orçamentos públicos constituem fontes de análises/avaliações por diversos pesquisadores, usando ou não alguma teoria para embasar. Este ensaio teórico tem o objetivo de analisar a Teoria do Equilíbrio Pontuado. A teoria explica a volatilidade (situações atípicas - pontuadas) e a estabilidade das políticas públicas orçamentárias dos governos. Considera análises percentuais pontuadas, as mudanças na execução orçamentária positivas iguais ou superiores a 35% e/ou negativas de 25% ou mais. A Teoria do Equilíbrio Pontuado (PET) é uma adaptação da biologia evolutiva para analisar e avaliar as políticas públicas com base nos estudos dos paleontologistas Gould e Eldredge, que defendiam que a mudança evolucionária biológica nem sempre foi lenta e constante ou gradual como foi mantida por Charles Darwin em 1859. Pelo contrário, a rápida evolução biológica ocorreu através de mutação, recombinação e seleção natural em populações periféricas isoladas. Observa-se que o ensaio avança na literatura sobre as políticas públicas ao evidenciar informações para os cidadãos cumprirem o controle social e para os políticos serve de reflexões no uso dos recursos públicos.

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Section: Estudos Que Utilizaram a Teoria Do Equilíbrio Pontuadounclassified

Ensaio teórico sobre a teoria do equilíbrio pontuado

Silva,

Oliveira

2024

Cuad. Ed. Desar.

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“…Indeed, bureaucratic politics and routinizing, which are inter alia characterized by informal and formal rules of procedures, norms and memories, do not only matter in the domestic realm (Wildavsky, 1975), but also in foreign policy (Allison, 1971; Durant & Diehl, 1989). Given the stability that standard operating procedures (SOP) provide, there is much more inertia in the institutional setting than there is in the international environment which, in part, explains why incremental change is the norm in the foreign policy realm (Colgan et al, 2012; Diehl & Goertz, 2000; Goertz & Diehl, 1995; Sharp, 2019; True, 2002).…”

Section: Pet As a Theory Of International Politicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…He concluded that policymakers cannot fully control security policy as the context and policy objectives may change rapidly. Focusing on punctuations in U.S. defense spending, Sharp (2019) found that punctuations only occur after elections or a shift in war policy. Joly and Richter (2019), in turn, demonstrated that heavier aid administrations tend to produce more punctuated aid outputs, confirming the main expectations of bureaucratic politics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The calm before the storm: A punctuated equilibrium theory of international politics

Joly

Richter

2022

Policy Studies Journal

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Research has shown that policymaking in numerous domestic policies, across a multitude of polities, systematically produces a pattern of change that matches Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), characterized by many incremental and occasional dramatic changes. The field of International Relations (IR), however, has paid surprisingly little attention to PET, even though the same pattern of change is also found in international politics. This study attempts to fill this gap and explains stability and change in international politics based on PET. Specifically, we detail the dynamics behind this pattern of behavior, both at the domestic and the international level, as well as their interplay. The empirical section shows that different indicators of international politics, including troop deployments, foreign aid and international trade, follow a leptokurtic pattern of change, which characterizes Punctuated Equilibrium, and whereby changes in countries' behavior are generally incremental, representing periods of relative stability, and punctuated by large changes that dramatically overthrow existing policies. Moreover, our results indicate that policy outputs where greater friction is at play are more punctuated than those policies that cannot as easily or directly be managed. This study urges future research to further explore the dynamics of stability and change at the aggregate, international level. K E Y W O R D Sforeign aid, international politics, international trade, punctuated equilibrium theory, troop deployments

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“…Ontologically akin to Schelling's work on micromotives and macrobehaviors [113], we expect a computational turn to reconcile the micro and macrolevels and provide empirical explanations of how policies change as a function of small changes at the microlevel. While public budgets depict empirical regularity across contexts [3], the driving mechanisms may be contextually different [84,114]. Moreover, the formalization of complex policy processes will also enable the exploration of a large set of correlates and test the sensitivity of initial conditions (e.g., network structures), the formation of coalitions, and the effects of exogenous perturbations.…”

Section: Research Directions To Advance a Computational Turn In Polic...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Computational Turn in Policy Process Studies: Coevolving Network Dynamics of Policy Change

Stauffer

Mengesha

Seifert³

et al. 2022

Complexity

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The past three decades of policy process studies have seen the emergence of a clear intellectual lineage with regard to complexity. Implicitly or explicitly, scholars have employed complexity theory to examine the intricate dynamics of collective action in political contexts. However, the methodological counterparts to complexity theory, such as computational methods, are rarely used and, even if they are, they are often detached from established policy process theory. Building on a critical review of the application of complexity theory to policy process studies, we present and implement a baseline model of policy processes using the logic of coevolving networks. Our model suggests that an actor’s influence depends on their environment and on exogenous events facilitating dialogue and consensus-building. Our results validate previous opinion dynamics models and generate novel patterns. Our discussion provides ground for further research and outlines the path for the field to achieve a computational turn.

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Wars, presidents, and punctuated equilibriums in US defense spending

Cited by 7 publications

References 91 publications

Ensaio teórico sobre a teoria do equilíbrio pontuado

Ensaio teórico sobre a teoria do equilíbrio pontuado

The calm before the storm: A punctuated equilibrium theory of international politics

A Computational Turn in Policy Process Studies: Coevolving Network Dynamics of Policy Change

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