Water demand forecasting and countermeasures across the Yellow River basin: Analysis from the perspective of water resources carrying capacity

Guo, Lishuo; Zhu, Wenxiang; Wei, Jian‐Rong; Wang, Lifang

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101148

Cited by 15 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Some studies assess regions, resource carrying capacities, and monitoring and early warning systems [18]. Regarding the research scale, they focus on the national [19,20], basin [21,22], and urban agglomeration [23] levels. In the study of the carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin, mainly land resources [17], water resources [24,25], a socioeconomic-resource-environmental multifactor combination [26][27][28], and other aspects are explored.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Study on Resource Carrying Capacity and Early Warning of Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin Based on Sustainable Development Goals, China

Bu,

Wang,

Wang

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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The Yellow River Basin is an essential ecological barrier in China, but it is relatively underdeveloped. The human–land relationship needs to be coordinated, and the ecological environment is fragile, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin. In this study, a “five-dimensional integrated” comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation model is constructed using the five dimensions of water, land, ecology, monitoring, and early warning to evaluate its resource carrying capacity quantitatively. It constructs an early warning system of the resource carrying capacity based on the quantitative evaluation results and monitors the state of the resource carrying capacity. The results show that (1) seven major urban agglomerations’ populations, grain productions, and land are surplus, and 50.85% of prefecture-level cities have food surpluses regarding human–food relationships. (2) There are shortages in the urban agglomeration’s water resources and a deficit in the water resource carrying capacity. (3) The average ecological carrying capacity index is 0.519, indicating a state of ecological affluence. (4) The comprehensive resource carrying capacity is defined as level-three heavy-load conditions, while 67%, 22%, and 14% of cities have level-one, -two, and -three heavy-load conditions, respectively. This study can aid in the monitoring of the resource carrying status of the Yellow River Basin. These results provide a scientific basis for effectively restraining the utilization and development of natural resources in the Yellow River Basin. It can also provide a research paradigm for the world’s river basins, as well as the sustainable development of man and nature in the world.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Study on Resource Carrying Capacity and Early Warning of Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin Based on Sustainable Development Goals, China

Bu,

Wang,

Wang

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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“…Therefore, strategic management of water resources is essential to meet diverse demands, including irrigation, water supply, groundwater recharge, and hydroelectricity. Acknowledging the significance of rivers in business activities and human existence, effective management should consider fundamental needs and pursue sustainable economic growth (Guo et al, 2022). Achieving an appropriate allocation of demands for river flows is inherently challenging, requiring effective regulation considering socio-economic and ecological sustainability aspects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Gongseng Dam Break-Induced Flood in East Java, Indonesia Through 2D Iber Software

Ahmadi,

Triatmodjo,

Benazir

2023

jcef

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The dam is a crucial river-crossing structure that ensures a sustainable water supply and offers numerous benefits. However, the potential hazard of dam failure is an imminent threat that could materialize unexpectedly. To comprehend the potential impact of dam break flood and identify vulnerable areas, it is essential to conduct rigorous analysis and simulate various dam failure scenarios. This comprehensive assessment is invaluable for informed land use planning and the development of effective emergency response plans. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze flood inundation resulting from the hypothetical failure of Gongseng dam, using Iber model. The modeling approach relied on a two-dimensional finite volume shallow water model, guided by specialized software. The scenarios for Gongseng dam break showed inundation areas of 12.57 km² and 7.55 km² for overtopping and piping failure, respectively. Overtopping failure resulted in the highest discharge, with Von Thun method causing severe damage due to wide break dimensions, and eventually leading to catastrophic consequences. However, this study showed that Froehlich method provided the most rational prediction for break parameters. In contrast to the other methods focusing solely on water height behind dam, Froehlich equation considered both the volume and height at the time of failure. Implementing dam break analysis held the potential to benefit downstream communities by providing inundation maps, thereby aiding in the mitigation of flood risks. Particularly, in situations with limited data and resources, as shown in this study, the cost-effective modeling method proposed could be an attractive option for simulating extreme flood induced by dam break.

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“…Various indicators for estimating water resource carrying capacity currently lack unified standards. However, some commonly utilized standards encompass economic, social, and ecological aspects of water resources [8], as well as criteria related to driving forces, pressures, states, impacts, and responses [9]. The third category is the systems analysis method [10], which comprehensively considers numerous potential factors that influence water resources and establishes a complex integrated system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Guyuan City

Peng,

Li,

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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To assess the water resource carrying capacity of Guyuan City, an analysis was conducted using the load index method, principal component analysis, and ecological water footprint method. A comprehensive analysis was carried out using these three methods to evaluate the current state of water resource carrying capacity in Guyuan City. The results indicate that the water resource carrying capacity in Guyuan City is mainly influenced by economic development factors, water supply–demand balance factors, and natural factors. During the period from 2002 to 2016, the water resource carrying capacity fluctuated in response to changes in the total water resources. However, from 2016 to 2021, it exhibited an increasing trend due to improvements in water resource utilization efficiency and effective water conservation measures. However, the water resource carrying capacity remains at a relatively low level, and it has consistently been in an overloaded state, with the development and utilization of water resources approaching their limits. Water scarcity in Guyuan City is a pressing concern, characterized by severe limitations on its potential for development and utilization. The persistent supply–demand imbalance is anticipated to impede the region’s pursuit of high-quality economic development in the foreseeable future.

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Water demand forecasting and countermeasures across the Yellow River basin: Analysis from the perspective of water resources carrying capacity

Cited by 15 publications

References 18 publications

A Study on Resource Carrying Capacity and Early Warning of Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin Based on Sustainable Development Goals, China

A Study on Resource Carrying Capacity and Early Warning of Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin Based on Sustainable Development Goals, China

Analysis of Gongseng Dam Break-Induced Flood in East Java, Indonesia Through 2D Iber Software

Analysis of the Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Guyuan City

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