Weather, climate and economic outcomes: Evidence from Italy

Olper, Alessandro; Maugeri, Maurizio; Manara, Veronica; Raimondi, Valentina

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107156

Cited by 20 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…First, in our baseline model, weather variables enter in first difference or as deviation from the long-run means to better control their trending nature, because temperature level is a trend variable that may bias the estimates of the climate-growth equation. 23 , 24 We find that temperature level (

) does not significantly affect growth, but it acts as a moderator variable affecting the relationship between temperature changes (

) and growth. Our results are robust to a set of robustness checks, including controlling for historical and socioeconomic factors, and estimates for different time periods and country sizes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…Recent literature indicates that temperature variable enter in first difference or as deviation from the long-run means to better control for its trending nature. 23 , 24 Given this, our empirical strategy includes temperature change (

and its interaction (

), which are our variables of interest. In variants (3)-(6) of Table 1 , we find that when temperature changes are included, temperature levels (

and

) are not significant, but its interaction (

) is significantly negative at the 1% level.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides, as the effect of weather shocks on economic production is a long-lasting process, temperature and precipitation has lagged effects on economic output. 12 , 24 Therefore, we construct the Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model as Equation 13 , where

and

denote the lags and maximum lags, respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Mitigating climate change to alleviate economic inequality under the Paris Agreement

Tang¹,

Duan²,

Yu³

2023

iScience

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) does not significantly affect growth, but it acts as a moderator variable affecting the relationship between temperature changes (

) and growth. Our results are robust to a set of robustness checks, including controlling for historical and socioeconomic factors, and estimates for different time periods and country sizes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

and its interaction (

), which are our variables of interest. In variants (3)-(6) of Table 1 , we find that when temperature changes are included, temperature levels (

and

) are not significant, but its interaction (

) is significantly negative at the 1% level.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Mitigating climate change to alleviate economic inequality under the Paris Agreement

Tang¹,

Duan²,

Yu³

2023

iScience

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…This will lead to increases in economic inequality for vulnerable groups (women and other marginalised groups). Global warming will also unevenly affect Italian regions, particularly for regions that are less developed and more dependent on agricultural production [19,20]. This will in turn lead to more economic disparity in Italy, which will trigger a wider challenge to the environmental systems As a result of climate change, heat stress, pest and disease activity, higher evaporative demand (which reduces water availability), and higher variability of rainfall will negatively affect future agriculture across Europe [21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Crop Shortlisting Method for Sustainable Agricultural Diversification across Italy

et al. 2022

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Whilst current policies recognize the impacts that changes in climates and markets have imposed on the Italian food system, less attention is given to the development of systematic approaches to identify alternative cropping systems across Italy and the European continent. In this article, a novel evidence-based crop shortlisting method was developed to address crop diversification needs for Italy as an example for the whole of Europe. In order to shortlist possible options from a pool of 2700 crops, a crop–climate–soil matching exercise was performed across Italian territory, and crops with more than 70% suitability were chosen for further analysis. In the second phase, a multi-criteria ranking index was employed to assign ranks to chosen crops of four main types: (i) cereals and pseudocereals, (ii) legumes, (iii) starchy roots/tubers, and (iv) vegetables. To provide a comprehensive analysis, all of the abovementioned criteria were compared for both major crops that are grown in the region and potential underutilised crops (UCs). The results of evaluation of four major criteria (namely (a) calorie and nutrition demand, (b) functions and uses, (c) availability and accessibility to their genomic material, (d) possession of adaptive traits, and (e) physiological traits) revealed the potential for teff, faba bean, cowpea, green arrow arum, Jerusalem artichoke, Fig-leaved Gourd, and Watercress. We discuss the implication of utilising such systematic approaches to crop selection and developing transformative solutions for food security with the aim of providing a primer for mainstreaming UCs in policy and investment plans.

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“…Their study applied ARIMAX-ARCH models and found evidence for bidirectional causation between human growth and climate change. In addition, Olper et al [27] examined the nexus between weather, climate and economic outcomes for the case of Italy over the period 1980-2014 for a panel of 110 provinces. They determined the statistically significant effects of temperature on both the GDP and agricultural reaction function.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Economic Growth Impacts of Climate Change in South Africa in the 2030 and 2050 Horizons

2022

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In this paper, we estimate the effects of climate change by means of the systems generalised method of moments (System GMM) using panel data across South African municipalities from 1993 to 2016. We adapt the estimates to the municipal economic structures to forecast losses at the municipal level for the 2030 and 2050 horizons. The projections show that, relative to the 1995–2000 levels, South Africa’s economy would lose about 1.82 billion United States dollars (USD) on average due to climate change following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 4.5 Wm−2 radiative forcing scenario, and USD 2.306 billion following the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030. By 2050, the losses will be USD 1.9 billion and USD 2.48 billion, respectively. The results vary across municipalities depending on geographic location and sectors. Natural resources and primary sectors are the most impacted, while the economic losses are more than the gains in almost all municipalities in South Africa. This has a significant bearing on sustainable poverty reduction in South Africa through pro-poor industrialisation. The implication of the findings is discussed in the paper’s conclusion.

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Weather, climate and economic outcomes: Evidence from Italy

Cited by 20 publications

References 44 publications

Mitigating climate change to alleviate economic inequality under the Paris Agreement

Mitigating climate change to alleviate economic inequality under the Paris Agreement

A Novel Crop Shortlisting Method for Sustainable Agricultural Diversification across Italy

Forecasting the Economic Growth Impacts of Climate Change in South Africa in the 2030 and 2050 Horizons

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