Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary?

Burroughs, William James

doi:10.1021/bk-1999-0722.ch003

Cited by 72 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 126 publications

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“…He concluded, overall, that there was no consistent evidence for any such effect in Australia (and little evidence for such an association anywhere in the world). This view has been supported by other recent reviews (Burroughs, 1992).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

“…Interannual differences in total annual catches of Tasmanian trumpeter (Latridopsis forsteri), illustrating quasi-decadal variability superimposed on a long-term downward trend in catches. Data from Harries and Croombe (1989) to European wine production and catches of North Atlantic cod (Burroughs, 1992;Currie et al, 1993). The conclusion that any of these factors was a function of the sunspot cycle foundered on (at times) dubious statistics, impermanence of the signal and consequent lack of predictability, and the absence of a plausible mechanism to account for a climate signal large enough to affect, for example, cod reproduction.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, interannual differences in the persistence of the ZWW tend to track the sunspot cycle (Figure 1), suggesting a causal link. Reports of associations between elements of terrestrial climate and the sunspot cycle have a long and chequered history (Meadows, 1975;Burroughs, 1992). Numerous associations have been suggested, but frequently have proven not to be persistent and have been broadly criticized because of the lack of a mechanism that plausibly linked the slight variation in Figure 1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Solar correlates of Southern Hemisphere mid‐latitude climate variability

Thresher

2002

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Atmospheric circulation in the southern mid-latitudes is dominated by strong circum-Antarctic zonal west winds (ZWW) over the latitude range of 35 to 60°S. These winds exhibit coherent seasonal and interannual variability, which has been related both to Antarctic (e.g. polar ice) and low-latitude climate (e.g. El Niño-southern oscillation) parameters. Historical and recent studies suggest that, at its northern margins, variability in the ZWW also has a marked quasi-decadal component. Analysis of sea-level pressure and rainfall data for the Australian region, South Africa and South America confirms frequent indications of quasi-decadal variability in parameters associated with the ZWW, which appears to be in phase around the hemisphere. This variation broadly correlates with the sunspot cycle, and specifically appears to reflect sunspot-correlated, seasonally modulated shifts in the latitude range each year of the sub-tropical ridge over eastern Australia. Sunspot-correlated variability in the southern mid-latitudes is likely to have substantial effects on temperate climate and ecology and is consistent with recent models of solar effects on upper atmospheric climate, though the mechanisms that link these to winds and rainfall at sea level remain obscure.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Solar correlates of Southern Hemisphere mid‐latitude climate variability

Thresher

2002

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…from Kenya (Johnson et al, 1991), from high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (Briffa et al, 1992;Scuderi, 1993) and in California (Burroughs, 1992). An ∼200-year oscillation has been reported in Californian dendrochronological studies (Burroughs, 1992), from marine cores near the Antarctic Peninsula (Leventer et al, 1996), from Tibetan ice cores (Thompson et al, 1997), and from peat deposits in Scotland (Chambers et al, 1997) and Denmark (Aaby, 1976). Suggested possible forcing mechanisms for ∼200-year oscillations include solar variability Braziunas, 1989, 1993;Suess and Linick, 1990) and lunar tidal effects (Burroughs, 1992).…”

Section: Variability Over the Period Of Meteorological Recordmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A recent review summarizes its appearance in temperature-and precipitation-related data series, in proxy data and in tree-ring studies (Hoyt and Schatten, 1997). In a number of long records, such as the Greenland Camp Century oxygen isotope record (Dansgaard et al, 1973), the Nile River flood series (Hameed, 1984;quoted in Hoyt and Schatten (1997)) cosmogenic isotopes in tree-ring series (Hoyt and Schatten, 1997) and central England temperatures (Burroughs, 1992), it is striking. Furthermore, significant variability has been found to reside in the 60-80-year band in historical joint Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature and sea-level pressure Park, 1994, 1996), as well as in global sea surface temperature data (Folland et al, 1998) and in joint empirical orthogonal function analysis of global historical sea surface temperatures and mean sea-level pressures (Allan, 2000).…”

Section: Variability Over the Period Of Meteorological Recordmentioning

confidence: 99%

Millennial to multi‐decadal variability in the climate of southern Africa

Tyson

Cooper

McCarthy

2002

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Wavelet analysis has been used to determine changes in the variability of southern Africa climate over the last three millennia. The structure of the variability in a 3000-year δ 18 O record has been compared with that in tree ring data for the last 600 years and both to the variability in annual rainfall and runoff during the 20th century. Preferred modes of variability are shown to have occurred in all the data sets. For overlap periods, the variability modes are in phase where the data are for a common seasonal rainfall regime.From the combined proxy and instrumental data it appears that an ∼1500-year oscillation in rainfall variability may have been present during the late Holocene. Considerable variability in South African climate has been shown to reside in the bands 500-800 and 60-120 years. The latter is manifest in stable isotope and tree ring proxy data and in measured rainfall and runoff, and shows a distinctive latitudinal variation over southern Africa. The ∼80-year variability has been present for at least 600 years in the tree ring data and at least 3000 years in the stable isotope data. During the 20th century, the variability in the 60-120-year range was confined south of 20°S in southern Africa.The existence of considerable multi-decadal climate variability in the range 16-20 years has been confirmed south of 15°S. Tree ring data show that the ∼18-year oscillation in climate has been present for at least 600 years. The 500-800-year, ∼80-year and ∼18-year variability has been both frequency-and amplitude-modulated over time, but never to the extent that the variability bands have lost their integrity. Their persistence is a striking feature of southern African climate.The millennial, centennial and multi-decadal variability in climate over southern Africa finds counterparts with temporal variability in similar time ranges reported elsewhere. Spatial teleconnections in variability likewise have been shown to occur. The changes in climate variability over the subcontinent are part of variability changes affecting the Earth system in many other regions.

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Signatures of a Universal Spectrum for Atmospheric Interannual Variability in Coads Surface Pressure Time Series

et al. 1996

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Annual and seasonal mean global surface pressure time series for the 25 years 1964–1988 obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) were subjected to quasi‐continuous periodogram spectral analysis. Periodogram estimates are summarized in the following: (i) the atmospheric interannual variability exhibits a broadband (eddy continuum) structure; (ii) the spectra follow the universal inverse power‐law form of the statistical normal distribution; (ii) periodicities up to 5 years contribute to as much as 50 per cent of the total variance; (v) the high‐ and low‐frequency El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles of respective periodicities 3–4 years and 4–8 years and interdecadal oscillations are present in all the data sets. The inverse power‐law form for power spectra is ubiquitous to real‐world dynamical systems and is identified as a signature of self‐organized criticality or deterministic chaos. The above results are consistent with a recently developed cell dynamical system model for atmospheric flows, which predicts self‐organized criticali ty as intrinsic to quantum‐like mechanics governing atmospheric flow dynamics. Identification of self‐organized criticality in annual and seasonal mean surface pressure fluctuations and its unique quantification implies predictability of the total pattern of fluctuations. A universal spectrum for interannual variability rules out linear trends in atmospheric surface pressure patterns.

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Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary?

Cited by 72 publications

References 126 publications

Solar correlates of Southern Hemisphere mid‐latitude climate variability

Solar correlates of Southern Hemisphere mid‐latitude climate variability

Millennial to multi‐decadal variability in the climate of southern Africa

Signatures of a Universal Spectrum for Atmospheric Interannual Variability in Coads Surface Pressure Time Series

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