Weather-Driven Variation in Dengue Activity in Australia Examined Using a Process-Based Modeling Approach

Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie; Williams, Craig R.; Ritchie, Scott A.; Rau, Gina; Lindesay, Janette; Mercer, G. N.; Harley, David

doi:10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0451

Cited by 29 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Several model-based studies have focused on relationships between climate and dengue, highlighting the utility of these approaches (Bannister-Tyrrell et al 2013; Focks et al 1993; Hales et al 2002; Hopp and Foley 2001; Martens et al 1997; Patz et al 1998). Such models are useful tools given the lack of long-term mosquito population records (Morin and Comrie 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States

Butterworth

Morin

Comrie

2017

Environ Health Perspect

107

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Background:Dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission.Objectives:We assessed projected climate change–driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region.Methods:We used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases in 23 locations in the southeastern United States under current climate conditions and future climate projections. We compared estimates for each location with simulations based on observed data from San Juan, Puerto Rico, where dengue is endemic.Results:Our simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model.Conclusions:Our findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations.Citation:Butterworth MK, Morin CW, Comrie AC. 2017. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 125:579–585; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP218

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States

Butterworth

Morin

Comrie

2017

Environ Health Perspect

107

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“…Both CIMSiM and DENSiM have been validated for mosquito productivity [21] and dengue incidence [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model

et al. 2015

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We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.

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“…Furthermore, there is an ongoing debate on the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission [5,15,17,18]. For example, some argue that climate is the major driver [27][28][29], whereas others suggest that socioecological factors play a key role on dengue transmission [30][31][32]. Hence, there is no conclusive evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence

Akter

Naish

Banu

et al. 2017

Tropical Med Int Health

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Abstractobjective To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. results Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors.conclusions Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems.

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Weather-Driven Variation in Dengue Activity in Australia Examined Using a Process-Based Modeling Approach

Cited by 29 publications

References 42 publications

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States

Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model

Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence

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