Weather forecast performances for complex orographic areas: Impact of different grid resolutions and of geographic data on heavy rainfall event simulations in Sicily

Caccamo, Maria Teresa; Castorina, Giuseppe; Colombo, Franco; Insinga, Vincenzo; Maiorana, E.; Magazù, Salvatore

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.028

Cited by 29 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Spalart et al [101] presented a new version of detached-eddy simulation in thin boundary layers that is resistant to ambiguous grid densities. In addition, Caccamo et al [102] investigated the impact of different grid spacing and geographic data on the performance of forecasts over complex orographic areas. Castorina et al [103] performed the optimization of the physical parametrizations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Occurrence and Development of an Extreme Precipitation Event in the Ili Valley, Xinjiang, China and Analysis of Gravity Waves

2020

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We used observational data and the results from a high-resolution numerical simulation model to analyze the occurrence and development of an extreme precipitation event in the Ili Valley, Xinjiang, China on 26 June 2015. We analyzed the horizontal wavelength, period, speed, ducting, energy propagation and feedback mechanism of inertial gravity waves. A low-level convergence line was formed in the valley by the northerly and westerly winds as a result of Central Asian vortices and the trumpet-shaped topography of the Ili Valley. There was sufficient water vapor in the valley for the precipitation event to develop. A mesoscale vortex formed and developed on the low-level convergence line and the rainfall was distributed either near the convergence line or the mesoscale vortex. The low-level convergence line and the uplift caused by the terrain triggered convection, and then the convection triggered waves at lower levels. The combination of ascending motion induced by the lower level waves and the mesoscale vortex led to the development of convection, causing the precipitation to intensify. When the convection moved eastward to Gongliu County, it was coupled with the ascending phase of upper level waves, causing both the convection and precipitation to intensify again. We applied spectral analysis methods to verify that the waves were inertial gravity waves. The upper level inertial gravity waves propagated westward at a mean speed of −12 m s−1 with periods of 73–179 min and horizontal wavelengths of 50–55 km. The lower level inertial gravity waves propagated eastward at a mean speed of 8 m s−1 with periods of 73–200 min and a horizontal wavelength of 85 km. The more (less) favorable waveguide conditions determined whether the gravity waves persisted for a long (short) time and propagated for a longer (shorter) distance. Based on the mesoscale Eliassen–Palm flux theory, the wave energy of inertial gravity waves had an important effect on the maintenance and development of convection and precipitation by affecting wind strength and wind divergence. Feedback was mainly through the meridional and vertical transport of zonal momentum and the meridional transport of heat.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Occurrence and Development of an Extreme Precipitation Event in the Ili Valley, Xinjiang, China and Analysis of Gravity Waves

2020

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“…With less energy entering the Earth's system, temperatures decrease further, creating positive feedback. Furthermore, as more ocean water is converted to ice, the overall water volume of the oceans decreases, allowing continental submerged portions to emerge [2][3][4][5]. The equilibrium global average temperature reached by this process represents a lower stationary regime of the overall climate during that period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Physical–Mathematical Approach to Climate Change Effects through Stochastic Resonance

Caccamo

Magazù

2019

Climate

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The aim of this work is to study the effects induced by climate changes in the framework of the stochastic resonance approach. First, a wavelet cross-correlation analysis on Earth temperature data concerning the last 5,500,000 years is performed; this analysis confirms a correlation between the planet's temperature and the 100,000, 41,000, and 23,000-year periods of the Milankovitch orbital cycles. Then, the stochastic resonance model is invoked. Specific attention is given to the study of the impact of the registered global temperature increase within the stochastic model. Further, a numerical simulation has been performed, based on: (1) A double-well potential, (2) an external periodic modulation, corresponding to the orbit eccentricity cycle, and (3) an increased value of the global Earth temperature. The effect of temperature increase represents one of the novelties introduced in the present study and is determined by downshifting the interaction potential used within the stochastic resonance model. The numeric simulation results show that, for simulated increasing values of the global temperature, the double-well system triggers changes, while at higher temperatures (as in the case of the absence of a global temperature increase although with a different threshold) the system goes into a chaotic regime. The wavelet analysis allows characterization of the stochastic resonance condition through the evaluation of the signal-to-noise ratio. On the basis of the obtained findings, we hypothesize that the global temperature increase can suppress, on a large time scale corresponding to glacial cycles, the external periodic modulation effects and, hence, the glacial cycles.Climate 2019, 7, 21 2 of 16 the oceans [6][7][8][9]. Equilibrium temperature at these times represents an upper stationary regime. On the other hand, climate variations can give rise to harsh conditions that are of interest for the study of extremophile organisms [10][11][12][13] for biotechnological applications [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22].Temperature determinations performed at the Vostok scientific station (Figure 1) revealed a strong correlation with the Milankovitch cycles [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32], and are shown in Figure 2.

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“…In that case, the Antillo meteorological station, which is a unit of SIAS (Servizio Informativo Agrometeorologico Siciliano) weather stations network, recorded, from 00 to 09 UTC, a maximum precipitation accumulation of 182 mm [9]. The heavy rains occurred were the results of a mesoscale convective system, developed in the Ionian Sea and powered in the low atmospheric layers by the very humid Southeastern streams.…”

Section: The Case Study Of October 10th 2015mentioning

confidence: 99%

IT Technologies for Science Application: Using Meteorological Local Area Model to Contrast the Hydrogeological Risks

Colombo¹,

Castorina²,

Mt³

et al. 2017

Hydrol Current Res

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During last 20 years, Sicily has been affected by an increasing sequence of extreme weather events that have produced, besides huge damages to both environment and territory, the death of hundreds of people together with the evacuation of thousands of residents, which have permanently lost their houses. The aim of this paper is to describe the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and to report findings obtained, through this model, in a relevant case study. On purpose a WRF Local Area Model (LAM) has been used to re-analyze the heavy rainfall occurred during the night of October 10th, 2015 in Sicily. The re-analysis of this case study, shows how a LAM, suitably configured for the complex orography of Sicily, is able to forecast this kind of extreme weather events. This study clearly shows how forecasts obtained using this kind of model can be very useful to reduce the hydrogeological impact of extreme events on the environment and on territory.

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Weather forecast performances for complex orographic areas: Impact of different grid resolutions and of geographic data on heavy rainfall event simulations in Sicily

Cited by 29 publications

References 24 publications

Occurrence and Development of an Extreme Precipitation Event in the Ili Valley, Xinjiang, China and Analysis of Gravity Waves

Occurrence and Development of an Extreme Precipitation Event in the Ili Valley, Xinjiang, China and Analysis of Gravity Waves

A Physical–Mathematical Approach to Climate Change Effects through Stochastic Resonance

IT Technologies for Science Application: Using Meteorological Local Area Model to Contrast the Hydrogeological Risks

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