Weather Forecasts and Society — A Brief Overview

Abstract

T is likely that most of us would experience little difficulty in recalling a recent spell of I weather which was sufficiently newsworthy to reach the front pages of the newspapers or the national TV news reports. The protracted wetness of the summer of 1985 and the sharp shock of the October 1987 storm are particularly memorable and clearly did not pass without leaving their mark on the financial budgets of individuals, the insurance companies, public services, and local and national government. The total cost of both events could easily be measured in millions of pounds. If such are the stars of the weather show then the cast list must also include events whose impacts on society are of considerably lower magnitude but which nonetheless result in personal inconvenience and, in many cases, significant financial loss. Delays at airports due to foggy weather, problems on road and rail due to ice and snow, the effect of rain over a bank holiday weekend on the whole array of tourism-related businesses, and the impact of the inevitable downpour on the day of the village fete all result in varying degrees of loss.In the case of the fete, comparisons will inevitably be made with the previous year's receipts, when perhaps the sun shone, and the deficit attributed directly to the wet weather. However, in reality, hidden variables such as personal circumstance, advertising, and the timetabling of other competing events mean that such calculations are little more than crude estimates of weather-related losses. As the scale of organisation becomes larger, such as airlines or construction companies, the problem of separating weather-related costs becomes more difficult and in many cases they are absorbed as hidden, unquantifiable, losses. The question in such cases is whether some of these losses could have been avoided by knowing in advance, with a reasonable degree of certainty, the future course of atmospheric behaviour. In the case of the fete it is unlikely that the forecast of rain would have done anything other than cause the event to be moved inside the village hall, but where more complex managerial decisions are being made it is possible that the input of a weather forecast could result in substantial financial savings. Over the years, the basis of the relationship between the two principals in such situations, the forecaster and the consumer, has changed from the verbal communication of local country wisdom, in the form of weather lore, to the sophisticated weather forecast products of 1 W . THE EVOLVING WEATHER FORECASTOne of the earliest recorded weather forecasts appears in the unlikely setting of the Bible, where in Matthew 16:2-3 direct reference is made to the familiar "red sky at night, red sky in the morning". The addition of shepherds and sailors to later versions of this saying reflects the strong agricultural and nautical basis of early weather prognoses. The handing down of weather wisdom from generation to generation was vital to survival and was the basis on which decisions such as the time for plant...