Weather Variability and Instability in Agricultural Production: Evidence from Odisha

Abstract

This study focused on exploring the weather variability induced instability in agriculture in the Odisha, India. In this study, growth and instability in ten major crops are analysed, followed by a depiction of weather variability in Odisha and then the association between weather variability and instability in selected crops are analysed using regression analysis. It is observed that weather variability is a major concern in the state of Odisha. In the context of agrarian economy of Odisha, the dimensions, magnitude and erratic nature of the weather variability and extreme weather events have made the situation more complex. Wide variations are observed in the rainfall both across time and space in the state. The long term average rainfall is indicating a declining trend. The weather variability has produced profound negative effects on agricultural production and yields in the state, causing agricultural fluctuations and has been a serious threat to the agrarian economy. Empirical findings lend credence to the negative effects of weather variability on agricultural yield and the regression analyses of yield instability on weather variability have only reaffirmed the same. The negative effects of weather variability on crop yield leads to a clear policy implication of proper provisioning of irrigation and weather variability resistance crop for increasing the crop yields and reduce the crop yield instability.

Growth and Instability in Agriculture Production in Odisha, India

“…β = 1+g and g = Compound growth rate of X. A = Initial year production yield and area t = Time in years When log transformation will be done the equation will be In x𝑡 = lnA + t.lnβ After log transformation the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) can be calculated as follows [13].…”

“…For area, the instability rate is more than 35 % for selected crops and further high instability also found in case of production of different crops. The reason behind it is, climate change is regularly happening in Odisha, agricultural farmers are mostly illiterate, lack of modern technology use in agriculture and geographical divide of Odisha [13].…”