Welfare reform and interstate migration of poor families

Abstract

The thesis of this study is that as a result of increased inequalities in welfare rules, the 1996 welfare reform act not only enhanced incentives for poor families to move but also (and perhaps more important) created disincentives for them to stay in "race to the bottom" states. In testing this thesis, we evaluated the mediating and moderating roles of state economic development and family structure. We merged data from three main sources: the 1996-1999 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, and state economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Modeling both destination (pull) and departure (push) effects of welfare policy measures and selected covariates in a nested discrete-time event-history migration analysis, we found robust support for the thesis that stringency in state welfare-eligibility and behavior-related rules stimulated interstate out-migration of poor families in the United States. However poor families were not drawn to states with relatively more-lenient welfare rules, although stringency in state welfare dollar benefits inhibited in-migration and state unemployment patterns may have conditioned the migration effects of welfare-reform rules on the choice of destination. Single mothers were not more directly affected by welfare-eligibility and behavior-related rules than were poor married couples.

Effects of Prenatal Poverty on Infant Health

“…Differences in TANF policy are captured with two composite variables based on De Jong et al’s (2005) factor analysis. TANF Work Requirements measures the types of situations that may exempt a person from work requirements (e.g., a lack of activities programs in the geographic area or spending significant time on volunteer activities).…”

Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation

“…Additional studies have also used the SIPP after the survey was redesigned in 1996. De Jong, Graefe, and St. Pierre (2005) analyzed the effect of changes in welfare rules on interstate migration incentives of poor families. Graefe, De Jong, and May (2006) also analyzed the effects of welfare reform on the migration incentives of families with members limited in their ability to work due to an illness or disabling condition.…”

“…Mobility research using SIPP data Dahmann (1989) Geographic mobility SIPP De Jong, Graefe, and St. Pierre (2005) Effect of welfare reform on interstate migration for poor SIPP families Graefe, De Jong, and May (2006) Effects of welfare reform on migration incentives for the SIPP work-disabled Shumway (1993) Immigration and unemployment duration SIPP…”

Work disability and migration in the early years of welfare reform

“…We test the new welfare-migration thesis that welfare migrants will engage in welfare policy-driven rational decision-making when considering an interstate move. Prior research has indicated that poor families leave states with more stringent welfare policies and may be attracted to states offering greater welfare gains (De Jong, Graefe, & St. Pierre, 2005). In the post-welfare reform era, the wide state variation in lenient-to-stringent welfare policy eligibility and behavior-related rules, along with welfare benefit levels and employment opportunities argued by traditional microeconomic research, are important components of the interstate migration cost-benefit calculus for poor families.…”