What controls the tail behaviour of flood series: Rainfall or runoff generation?

Abstract

Abstract. Many observed time series of precipitation and streamflow show heavy tail behaviour. For heavy-tailed distributions the occurrence of extreme events has a higher probability than for distributions with an exponentially receding tail. If we neglect heavy tail behaviour we might underestimate rarely observed, high-impact events. Robust estimation of upper tail behaviour is often hindered by the limited length of observational records. Using long time series and a better understanding of the relevant process controls can help with achieving more robust tail estimations. Here, a simulation-based approach is used to analyse the effect of precipitation and runoff generation characteristics on the upper tail of flood peak distributions. Long, synthetic precipitation time series with different tail behaviour are produced by a stochastic weather generator. These are used to force a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. In addition, catchment characteristics linked to a threshold process in the runoff generation are varied between model runs. We characterize the upper tail behaviour of the simulated precipitation and discharge time series with the shape parameter of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). Our analysis shows that runoff generation can strongly modulate the tail behaviour of flood peak distributions. In particular, threshold processes in the runoff generation lead to heavier tails. Beyond a certain return period, the influence of catchment processes decreases and the tail of the rainfall distribution asymptotically governs the tail of the flood peak distribution. Beyond which return period this is the case depends on the catchment storage in relation to the mean annual rainfall amount. We conclude that, for return periods that are mostly of interest to flood risk management, runoff generation is often a more pronounced control of flood heavy tails than precipitation.