What is Behind the China Rule in 2007: Motivations for the Bush Administration’s Export Control Policy Against China

Abstract

Although export control policy for dual-use items has been getting attention recently, particularly due to the Trump administration's frequent usage of the term, it is worth noting that the history of post-Cold War export control policy dates back to 2007-i.e., during the Bush administration. China Rule, as an export control policy, rather than an ordinary export policy, provides the foundation for controlling export toward China. This study examines why the Bush administration implemented such a policy specifically in 2007, and then moves on to specify China Rule as the dependent variable. With an emphasis on both perceptual and cognitive aspects of human decision-makers, the theoretical framework not only draws from the area of foreign policy analysis, but builds on the concept of securitization to capture the essence of China policy behaviors. Separating reconstructed reality from objective reality, this study captures the former by exploring pertinent indicators such as high technology trade or research indicators. Major decision makers from the cabinet to the bureaucracy hold hostile views against China, so they interpret the given information pessimistically and urge policy actions, regardless of U.S. leadership in high technology sectors. As a result, their belief system reconstructs negative rhetoric and pushes the Bush administration to counteract the national security threat raised by China. As China Rule presents a comprehensive message to China by elevating the issue to national security concerns, it introduces a crucial case to buttress recalibration of US China policy and to provide implications in US-China technology competition.