What will revive U.S. economic growth? Lessons from a prototype industry-level production account for the United States

Jorgenson, Dale W.; Ho, Mun S.; Samuels, Jon D.

doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.04.003

Cited by 30 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Conceptually, this bottom-up approach differs from top-down TFP measurement because of input-reallocation terms. Jorgenson, Ho, and Samuels (2013) find these terms are, on average, small. 07 (more substantially negative at -1.38 percent).…”

Section: Evidence From Industry Datamentioning

confidence: 81%

Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession

Fernald¹

2014

ERWP

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U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules out explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out "bubble economy" stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in industries that produce information technology (IT) or that use IT intensively, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains. A calibrated growth model suggests trend productivity growth has returned close to its 1973-1995 pace. Slower underlying productivity growth implies less economic slack than recently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office. As of 2013, about ¾ of the shortfall of actual output from (overly optimistic) pre-recession trends reflects a reduction in the level of potential.

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Section: Evidence From Industry Datamentioning

confidence: 81%

Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession

Fernald¹

2014

ERWP

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“…5 Our relatively large aggregation with only 13 sectors implies that the individuals that switch sectors across waves (and therefore may report at some point a current sector that differs from the sector with longest tenure) represent only around 11% of the observations. 6 The US World KLEMS database Jorgenson et al (2013) allows us to compute the TFP growth that occurred in each industry from any pair of years between 1948 to 2010. 7 In this way, we have the TFP growth in, say, the "Mining and Construction" industry from 1948 to 1949 (and to 1950, 1951,. .…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

A new look at technical progress and early retirement

2016

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Technical progress affects early retirement in two opposing ways. On the one hand, it increases real wages and thus produces an incentive to postpone retirement. On the other hand, it erodes workers' skills, making early retirement more likely. We re-examine the effect of technical progress on early retirement in the US. We measure technical change during the whole working life of the individuals and find that its effect on the probability of early retirement is non-monotonic. In particular, when technical change is small, the erosion effect dominates, but when it is large the wage effect dominates. These results may signal that the higher the technical change, the more willing are the elderly to retrain, which has direct policy implications for the design of elderly training programs. Jel codes: J24, J26, O33

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“…To translate labor productivity to GDP, I use projections for potential labor input and nonbusiness output from the CBO (2014a) and labor quality estimates from Jorgenson, Ho, and Samuels (2013).…”

Section: From Labor Productivity To Gdp Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%