When Predators Help Prey Adapt and Persist in a Changing Environment

Osmond, Matthew Miles; Otto, Sarah P.; Klausmeier, Christopher A.

doi:10.1086/691778

Cited by 57 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Climate change is creating new hybrid zones around the globe, which could increase or decrease adaptation to novel conditions via introgression (Box 1; Hoffmann and Sgro 2011, Hamilton and Miller 2016, Scheffers et al 2016. For example, existing and novel predator-prey interactions can accelerate prey adaptation to changing environments under three scenarios: 1) predators preferentially prey on genotypes that become increasingly maladapted as environments change (Jones 2008, Osmond et al 2017, 2) predation selects for traits that are adaptive under climate change, such as smaller body size (Tseng and O'Connor 2015) and 3) predation increases mortality, which decreases generation times, and therefore increases evolutionary rates (i.e. Also, novel and existing species interactions can increase selection towards future conditions (Jones 2008, Osmond and de Mazancourt 2013, Tseng and O'Connor 2015, Osmond et al 2017.…”

Section: Ecology-to-evolution Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, novel and existing species interactions can increase selection towards future conditions (Jones 2008, Osmond and de Mazancourt 2013, Tseng and O'Connor 2015, Osmond et al 2017. However, these interactions can also reduce abundance, which increases the likelihood of extirpation and genetic drift (Osmond andde Mazancourt 2013, Osmond et al 2017). the evolutionary hydra effect; Osmond et al 2017).…”

Section: Ecology-to-evolution Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

2019

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We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex ecoevolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range-front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco-evolutionary effects could cause a three-step, stop-and-go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This 'evolutionary extinction debt' could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco-evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco-evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology. ) and M. C. Urban (https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3962-4091),

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Section: Ecology-to-evolution Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ecology-to-evolution Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

2019

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“…; Osmond et al. ). They first assume some unimodal mapping from phenotype, z , to absolute fitness (the “fitness function”).…”

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confidence: 98%

“…Typically these studies follow a quantitative genetic approach (for alternatives see Johansson 2008;Bertram et al 2016;Osmond et al 2017). They first assume some unimodal mapping from phenotype, z, to absolute fitness (the "fitness function").…”

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confidence: 99%

An evolutionary tipping point in a changing environment

Osmond

Klausmeier

2017

Evolution

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Populations can persist in directionally changing environments by evolving. Quantitative genetic theory aims to predict critical rates of environmental change beyond which populations go extinct. Here, we point out that all current predictions effectively assume the same specific fitness function. This function causes selection on the standing genetic variance of quantitative traits to become increasingly strong as mean trait values depart from their optima. Hence, there is no bound on the rate of evolution and persistence is determined by the critical rate of environmental change at which populations cease to grow. We then show that biologically reasonable changes to the underlying fitness function can impose a qualitatively different extinction threshold. In particular, inflection points caused by weakening selection create local extrema in the strength of selection and thus in the rate of evolution. These extrema can produce evolutionary tipping points, where long-run population growth rates drop from positive to negative values without ever crossing zero. Generic early-warning signs of tipping points are found to have little power to detect imminent extinction, and require hard-to-gather data. Furthermore, we show how evolutionary tipping points produce evolutionary hysteresis, creating extinction debts.

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“…Studies on competitive systems (Johansson 2008, de Mazancourt et al 2008, Urban et al 2012, Osmond and de Mazancourt 2013 and predator-prey systems (Jones 2008, Osmond et al 2017 have shown that the density-dependent consequences of interspecific interactions (e.g., death due to predation) can facilitate or inhibit evolutionary rescue. Studies on competitive systems (Johansson 2008, de Mazancourt et al 2008, Urban et al 2012, Osmond and de Mazancourt 2013 and predator-prey systems (Jones 2008, Osmond et al 2017 have shown that the density-dependent consequences of interspecific interactions (e.g., death due to predation) can facilitate or inhibit evolutionary rescue.…”

Section: Connections With Evolutionary Rescue Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

How (co)evolution alters predator responses to increased mortality: extinction thresholds and hydra effects

Cortez

Yamamichi

2019

Ecology

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Citation: Cortez, M. H., and M. Yamamichi. 2019. How (co)evolution alters predator responses to increased mortality: extinction thresholds and hydra effects. Ecology 100(10):Abstract. Population responses to environmental change depend on both the ecological interactions between species and the evolutionary responses of all species. In this study, we explore how evolution in prey, predators, or both species affect the responses of predator populations to a sustained increase in mortality. We use an eco-evolutionary predator-prey model to explore how evolution alters the predator extinction threshold (defined as the minimum mortality rate that prevents population growth at low predator densities) and predator hydra effects (increased predator abundance in response to increased mortality). Our analysis identifies how evolutionary responses of prey and predators individually affect the predator extinction threshold and hydra effects, and how those effects are altered by interactions between the evolutionary responses. Based on our theoretical results, we predict that it is common in natural systems for evolutionary responses in one or both species to allow predators to persist at higher mortality rates than would be possible in the absence of evolution (i.e., evolution increases the predator mortality extinction threshold). We also predict that evolution-driven hydra effects occur in a minority of natural systems, but are not rare. We revisited published eco-evolutionary models and found that evolution causes hydra effects and increases the predator extinction threshold in many studies, but those effects have been overlooked. We discuss the implications of these results for species conservation, predicting population responses to environmental change, and the possibility of evolutionary rescue.Notes: The terms J ij denote entries of the Jacobian in Eq. 3. All conditions assume the sign structure in Eq. 3. Coevolution conditions result in synergistic effects of prey and predator evolution, provided the conditions for only prey evolution and the conditions for only predator evolution are satisfied.

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When Predators Help Prey Adapt and Persist in a Changing Environment

Cited by 57 publications

References 54 publications

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

An evolutionary tipping point in a changing environment

How (co)evolution alters predator responses to increased mortality: extinction thresholds and hydra effects

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