Where is victory most certain? The level of luck-based noise factor in Summer Olympic Games

Csurilla, Gergely; Gyimesi, András; Kendelényi-Gulyás, Erika; Sterbenz, Tamás

doi:10.1556/032.2021.00018

Cited by 7 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…An effect of hosting is usually employed in the related models to control for the outstanding medal surplus of the home country. The host effect clearly exists when using aggregated data; the host dummy variable shows a significant positive effect on the number of medals in all studies 4,5,11,12,[15][16][17][18]22,23 .…”

Section: Conceptual Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…2), which may bias the estimation using OLS. Previous studies used the Tobit estimator 4,5,10,11,[16][17][18] or zero-inflated beta regression 15 to manage the zero-observation problem. However, medal count can only be a positive number, which indicates a Poisson or negative binomial distribution 28 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following Singleton et al we also apply two-way fixed effects in the regression models to control for the heterogeneity in country performance in terms of number of medals at the Olympic Games. We control for GDP per capita (at purchasing power parity) and population, the two most important determinants of Olympic success 4,[15][16][17][18] .…”

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confidence: 99%

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The less obvious effect of hosting the Olympics on sporting performance

Csurilla

Fertő

2023

Sci Rep

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Hosting the Olympics has long been claimed to bring a financial return on investment. When this cannot clearly demonstrated, the medal surplus associated with host status is usually highlighted. We investigate the magnitude of having a home advantage at the recent Summer Olympic Games (1996–2021) separately for each organising country and by gender. Beside the host effect, the ex-ante and post impact on the medal surplus is also investigated in the same way. We analyse this effect using three models at the level of total medals, and medals won by men, and by women. Because of the number of zero observation in the response variable, we employ a zero-inflated negative binomial estimator. Our results cast some doubt on the claim of a host effect of the Olympics: when we control for socioeconomic variables in the models, the host effect fades away. Any host effect is clearer for medals won by men. Ex-ante and post effects on host countries are detectable in some cases but also fade with the inclusion of control variables. Based on our results, the medal surplus associated with the hosting of the Olympics is less evident than reported in literature or public discourse.

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Section: Conceptual Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The less obvious effect of hosting the Olympics on sporting performance

Csurilla

Fertő

2023

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“…We use statistical analysis methods to evaluate physical function fatigue characteristics. 6 In this way, the analysis model of the correlation characteristics of the fatigue limit of modern five physical functions is obtained:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physical Qualities of Modern Pentathlon Athletes in Training at Altitude

Wang

Lian

2023

Rev Bras Med Esporte

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Introduction: Modern pentathlon has high requirements for the physical, psychological, and tactical training of athletes, and practicing the five items as a whole in physical training is a problem that needs to be solved. Organizing the load of each item and the overall load may be a circumventable problem using the altitude training technique. Objective: This study aimed to test and evaluate the effects of altitude training on modern pentathletes’ athletic performance and functional status. At the same time, we analyzed the method’s influence on the athletes’ physical quality. The ultimate goal of this experiment is to improve the science of modern pentathlete training. Methods: Six athletes from the modern pentathlon team were selected as research subjects. Changes in physiological indicators of the test subjects before and after altitude training were recorded. Mathematical statistics were used to analyze the collected data. Results: The athletes’ hemoglobin during high-altitude training was significantly higher than before training (P<0.05). Other physiological indicators such as blood urea and high-density protein were not significantly different (P>0.05). Modern pentathlon performance of athletes after altitude training was significantly improved (P<0.05). Conclusion: Altitude training can improve the performance of modern pentathlon athletes. At the same time, this training method can also improve the athletes’ aerobic capacity. Level of evidence II; Therapeutic studies - investigation of treatment outcomes.

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“…The comparison of sports or element of sports based on the level of luck or probability of winning is not novel, and several studies have investigated this topic [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. There are lucid reasons behind the popularity of luck studies in sport [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Much Is Winning a Matter of Luck? A Comparison of 3 × 3 and 5v5 Basketball

Csurilla

Boros

Fűrész

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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Background: The comparison of team sports based on luck has a long tradition and remains unsolved. A contrast between the new Olympic format three-on-three (3 × 3) and five-on-five (5v5) forms of basketball has never been analyzed and provides a comparison within the same form of sports. Methods: We developed a new method to calculate performance indicators for each team and invented the Relative Score Difference Index, a new competitive balance indicator that allows the comparison of luck in the two basketball forms for both men and women. We collected game-level data about 3 × 3 and 5v5 from the World Cups held between 2010 and 2019 (N = 666). Luck was defined as the difference between the expected and the actual outcomes of games. Using the basketball World Cup data, we applied the Surprise Index, ran probit regression models, and compared the basketball forms on the goodness-of-fit of the models. Results: As we predicted, there are differential effects of luck between game formats and sex, such that the 3 × 3 form depends more on luck and women’s games are less influenced by luck when compared to men’s games. Conclusion: Coaches may better understand the differences between the two forms and sexes regarding luck if they are aware that the 3 × 3 and men’s competitions are usually more influenced by luck. The findings provide a leverage point for testing new performances and competition balance indicators and will acknowledge the number of games we enjoy watching.

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Where is victory most certain? The level of luck-based noise factor in Summer Olympic Games

Cited by 7 publications

References 30 publications

The less obvious effect of hosting the Olympics on sporting performance

The less obvious effect of hosting the Olympics on sporting performance

Physical Qualities of Modern Pentathlon Athletes in Training at Altitude

How Much Is Winning a Matter of Luck? A Comparison of 3 × 3 and 5v5 Basketball

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